It may seem hyperbolic to call today a historic day for the rebuilding effort the Reds have been enduring since the mostly dark days of the 2000's. While you hate to jump the gun with labels like that, today's news of a long-term extension with 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto may well be the punctuation mark on what has certainly been the most aggressive off-season in recent team history. At a rumored ten years and $225 million, the deal keeps Votto under team control for the next decade and beats a midnight deadline the first basemen set with the club to resolve an extension before the season. It is the largest deal in Cincinnati sports history, the fourth-largest in MLB history and the largest contract for a non-free agent ever.
There's no question that Joey Votto got paid like most All-Star first basemen this off-season. With a baseball-leading .363 batting average with runners in scoring position over the last three seasons, he was bound to be. There's probably also no question that the Reds would have been outbid had he hit free agency at the conclusion of his previous contract in 2013.
Earlier this Spring, Votto commented on Pujols' move to Los Angeles to Fox's Jon Morosi, remarking "I think Albert might find — not that I know — that St. Louis might have been a good market as far as him being a star." He later added that if he was elected into the Hall of Fame, Votto would like to be next to "The other Reds players [like] Bench and Morgan." With an extension that will keep him in red and white until 2023, he may well have that opportunity now.
Not So "All In" All of a Sudden
 |
| Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are about to spend a lot of time together. |
The news of a Votto extension is staggering on its own, but it's important to think about this deal in the context of the team's last two years. In 2010, the Reds extended Jay Bruce with an Evan Longoria-esque, team-friendly contract extension for six years. Coupled with the four-year extension of Cueto and acquisition of Mat Latos with team control through 2015, Walt Jocketty has taken a two-year "All In" window and blown it wide open.
Complimentary pieces like starter Mike Leake, reliever Sean Marshall and current-reliever-maybe-someday-starter Aroldis Chapman are also controlled comfortably for the next few years. Other regular contributors like Zach Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are all under extended team control and haven't even hit arbitration yet. In terms of the prospects lost in the Mat Latos trade earlier this off-season, the pieces lost are looking more and more redundant with the extension of Votto by virtue of their positions.
The potentially negative implication is that the team may now lose the payroll flexiblity to extend Brandon Phillips for the multiple years he is likely hoping for. When asked by Cincinnati's John Fay about this own ongoing contract negotiations and the Votto deal after it surfaced, Phillips replied briefly with, "I just want to play baseball." The Reds and Phillips' agent were reportedly on good terms earlier in the off-season, but it goes without saying that financial circumstances are very different now.
How The Reds Will Pay for It
The $225-million question for the Reds is how they'll front the bill for Votto's services. The shock around baseball was Cincinnati's ability to pull the trigger on such a large financial commitment and the risks associated with it. There are a few components to consider in that equation, beyond merely paying the market value at first base set by Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder earlier this winter.
First and foremost, the Reds are continuing to try to generate fan interest after the aforementioned Dark Period prior to Jocketty's arrival. Over the last three seasons, the Reds have built attendance from a meager 21,500 per game in 2009; to 25,400 in 2010; and 27,300 in 2011. This may seem like small potatoes to teams with near or complete sellouts virtually every game of the year, and in a lot of ways it is. The Reds are fairly consistently in the middle to back of the pack in attendance numbers and have been since the early 90's. Still, the trend is swinging in the right direction and another playoff run or two may push home attendance over that elusive 2,500,000 fan mark on the year. The aggressive moves this off-season should hopefully contribute to increased attention around Cincinnati and keep moving the needle on ticket and merchandise sales.
Perhaps the more important consideration, though, is the restructuring of the team's current TV contract, which expires in 2016. While it's difficult to foresee exactly what that financial contribution will be, the last deal was signed when interest in the team was waning in 2008. As it stands, the team only makes $10 million a year, which is grossly out of line with some other recent TV deals, even in semi-comparable market sizes. This likely boon in money will come towards the middle part of Votto's contract and provide the team with some added flexibility.
As is always the case, you try to maximize the opportunities to win in baseball for as long as you possibly can. When other deals come to bear in the latter parts of the Joey Votto contract, opinion around the financial commitment made to him may change. Without question, the Reds have taken on a risk with the 28-year-old Votto, hitching themselves to the first basemen with a contract that takes him even beyond Albert Pujols' playing commitments to the Angels. The team is gambling that the fans will take notice and show up. Joey Votto will try to help the cause
