tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62568114674388321052024-03-05T22:21:07.533-05:00Redleg HomestandA blog on baseball and its oldest professional team. It isn't homerism if you have eight pages of statistics to support it.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-42949161369450539652012-05-10T17:14:00.000-04:002012-05-10T20:18:24.052-04:00The Self-Flagellation of Trades Gone By<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOy37IqesUIFBGBYKt3_VqGL4ShIB4qFHikszYLHGsQJFJwCUYkGqWt2mIBzlx7aHC38dyIwKsupBi3bzEvslheyH7c2FBmoD2cALgv9ox1ZShpOnB7QswTBPfGbIRlgnJDL0GWLgYP74/s320/JoshHamiltonRangers.jpg" width="320" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Former Red Josh Hamilton became the 16th player<br />
in MLB history to hit four homers in a game this week</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It was an interesting week for Cincinnati Reds fans, as the team
continues to right the ship from a slow start to the tune of yet another series
win over the Milwaukee Brewers. The final game of their 4-2 road trip was a
classic pitcher’s duel between two of the premiere pitching talents in the
National League in Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto and Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke. Powered
by some clutch two-out hitting in the top of the ninth, the Reds squeaked two
runs across the plate off closer John Axford in an eventual 2-1 victory. It was
the ninth time in ten chances this season that the Reds won the “get away” game
to take the final game of the series and push their record in the previous ten
games to 7-3.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">In spite of the cause for optimism about this current team’s lot,
however, social media sites and baseball bloggers everywhere have steered the
conversation about the Reds into another, much less productive discussion about
a game played in the other league. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Hamilton Goes
Ham</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Former member of the Reds 2007 club and since-traded slugger Josh
Hamilton had a historic evening on May 8<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup>. The outfielder and 2010
American League MVP accomplished a feat that had only been achieved fifteen
other times in the history of the sport: cranking four home runs in a game. Along
with his fifth hit - a casual double, just for kicks - the four dingers
resulted in eight runs batted in and a jaw-dropping, AL-record 18 total bases
in the game. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">''Obviously it's, other than being in the World Series, the
highlight of my big-league career,'' </span><a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Josh-Hamilton-hits-4-home-runs-for-Texas-Rangers-vs-Baltimore-Orioles-050812?gt1=39002"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: inherit;">Hamilton
said</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> after the game. And just as Rangers fans everywhere were raising a
customary ginger ale toast to Hamilton’s remarkable achievement, a multitude of
Reds fans fired up their computer to remind the world of the obvious: the
Redlegs “lost” the Hamilton trade.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHZSB2NuqK4C5lc29JibxyXwwjvyQtZFRtvnzX3CMHgg05zkTRJpKxlVH70PG1WdOzMD2rke-0NfbKeGn8s1SkI8PjJi2TVXX-s_vwLpi03-u29o4m5bQV0Qx05dRBr3OnCYZUhwQjQgM/s320/JoshHamiltonReds.jpg" width="286" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hamilton hit .292 with 19 HRs and 47 RBI<br />
in 298 at-bats with the Reds in 2007</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The Trade</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">When Hamilton was traded in
late 2007, the Reds received pint-sized reliever Danny Herrera and, more
notably, starting pitcher Edinson Volquez. Josh was </span><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2007-12-21-reds-rangers-trade_N.htm"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: inherit;">coming
off a season</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> where he hit .292 with 19 homers and 47 RBI in 298 at-bats
with the Reds. As a “rookie” for the Reds, he led all of the National League with
151,000 write-in votes for the All Star game.
He has arguably been the most dynamic hitting talent in baseball since that
fateful December day in 2007, making the All-Star game each of the last four
years, securing two Silver Slugger awards in 2008 and 2010 and winning MVP
honors in 2010 for both the regular season as a whole and in the AL Championship
Series.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">At the time of the trade, Volquez was coming off a season in which
he won 14 games for the Rangers’ AA and AAA minor league affiliates, posting a
3.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .190 batting average. He was regarded as
the third best prospect in the entire Rangers organization by Baseball America
and had made marked improvements in his control, leading then GM Wayne Krivsky to
believe that, "he was ready to compete and win a job in the rotation in
'08."</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">To Krivsky’s credit, he was right about Volquez in the short term.
The pitcher started the 2008 season for the Reds with a 7-1 record and a 1.33
ERA in nine starts. By season’s end, he was 17-6 with the eighth best ERA in
the National League (3.21) and was an obvious representative for the National
League in the 2008 All-Star Game. Unfortunately, Volquez’s stock began to
decline after the 2008 season while Hamilton further entrenched himself as one
of the most natural talents in the game. After Tommy John surgery and a
suspension for PED use in 2009 and 2010, Volquez’s contributions to the Reds
team became increasingly marginal until he was finally packaged as a pot
sweetener in the 2012 blockbuster trade that brought Mat Latos over to the
Reds. Herrera was a limited contributor in 2009, but eventually waived from the
club in 2010.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">In light of how the winds of change have blown since “The Trade”
it doesn’t take a tremendous amount of baseball insight to say the Reds seemingly
got hosed. But judging these exchanges on the plight of a player once they
leave an organization is lazy and ignores the most obvious reality of any major
sports trade: they happen in the context of the time that they are made.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Accepting
Reality without Wallowing</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It’s easy to look at box scores around the league and covet having
the contributions of the best players in the game wearing your team’s colors. In
reality, though, actually attaining and keeping that kind of talent doesn’t
happen in a vacuum. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Going into 2008, much like 2012, the Reds had one major glaring
need to help them compete: starting pitching. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo
were the only true anchors in the rotation. Homer Bailey had just arrived to
limited success and some kid named Johnny Cueto was on his way up in the minors.
A then-ineffective Kyle Lohse (traded at the All-Star break) and a young Matt
Belisle were doing the rest of the heavy lifting for the 2007 staff. If the Reds club had one position of strength
to deal from at the time, it was big-hitting outfielders (Griffey, Dunn),
especially with a highly-lauded youngster named Jay Bruce knocking on the door
for promotion. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It’s easy to wish the team had a trade “do-over” knowing what we
know now about Hamilton and Volquez. But at the time, keeping Hamilton wasn’t an
option that was without liability itself. The experts in Cincinnati and Texas
likely saw the same raw talent in Josh that Tampa Bay did when they picked him
#1 overall in 1999. But merely possessing talent and having it translate on the
field are two different things, and other than his one summer in Cincinnati,
Josh Hamilton largely didn’t translate his talent.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">This reality should come as no surprise to those familiar with the
Josh Hamilton substance abuse saga: alcoholism and drug abuse had him banned by
MLB in 2003 before spiraling into another few years of self-destructive
behavior following that. Sure, MLB gave him another chance at the game after he
cleaned up his act, and so did Tampa Bay. But people seem to forget that Hamilton
was not an effective player right upon his return in 2006, as he scuffled along
in single-A before finally being released and by the Rays and picked up by the
Cubs (</span><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2006/262980.html"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: inherit;">on
behalf of the Reds</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;">) in the Rule 5 draft. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Cincinnati took a gamble on Hamilton managing his demons, and it
happened to pan out in 2007. The Reds were the most recent team (before Texas)
to have seem him produce at a high level. For that reason, Cincinnati might
have a little more egg on their face than Tampa Bay does for releasing him or
Chicago does for taking the cash for his pick in the Rule 5 draft. It wasn’t
exactly a sure conclusion that a recovering drug addict with a potential injury
propensity would continue that level of production long-term, though. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Reds took another gamble following 2007 in trading Josh away,
potentially “selling high” on a nice redemption story for a position they
needed much more sorely than power hitting outfielders. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Hamilton’s 2007 season was one of almost unprecedented in how
unexpected it was. Players virtually without exception don’t take three years
away from the game and come back to produce at the MLB level on more than a “fluke”
basis. His dramatic splits against lefties that season (<span lang="EN">.222/.296/.292</span><span lang="EN"> </span>) may have even given the Reds cause
for concern about Josh getting “figured out” by pitchers or managers as he got
more plate appearances. The organization took a risk that whatever production Hamilton
would continue to bring wasn’t worth the risk of carrying a player who had been
kicked out of baseball for drug use already and needed almost constant supervision
to manage his addictions. It probably didn’t help that Hamilton’s personality <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/24/josh-hamilton-was-disliked-by-pretty-much-everyone-while-playing-for-the-reds/"><span style="color: #cc0000;">wasn’t
generally well-received</span></a> in the clubhouse to begin with. In the few years since
the trade, (other than a two well-documented “minor” Josh Hamilton relapses) the
Reds would seemingly have lost that gamble. But that doesn’t mean it was the
wrong idea at the time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Sometimes a trade isn’t necessarily “bad” in its conception, but
the results just end up being that way. Josh Hamilton may be the prime example
of this reality in modern baseball.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Enough
Hypotheticals Already</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Beyond Hamilton, Cincinnati fans have been quick to point out that
three of the four homerun leaders in the American League right now (Hamilton, Adam Dunn
and Edwin Encarnacion) are former Reds. To simply observe this is one thing,
but the insinuations that the Reds royally mismanaged their roster in the last
few years by letting these guys walk are a little inaccurate. In fact, the Reds
had all three of those players on the same roster in 2007, resulting in a
ho-hum 72-90 record, mostly due to abysmal pitching.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">To suggest that the Reds would have somehow been able to keep even
two of those three players without losing some of the other role players on the
current team is foolish. Had the Reds seen the promise in Hamilton like so many
fans now claim that they did in hindsight, Cueto, Bailey and Votto </span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/erik-bedard-mar.html"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: inherit;">may well have
been traded</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> for Erik Bedard after all, and the conversation could have been
about how terrible <i>that </i>trade was. In
any event, the team would almost certainly not have had the flexibility to
extend Brandon Phillips as they did, who himself arrived from Cleveland via
trade for a bucket of baseballs and a bag of sunflower seeds. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Hypothetical assumptions are unproductive in these conversations because
we just don’t know how things would have panned out if the path not traveled
was taken. Nothing in this game happens without causing some ripples. When one
piece moves in a certain direction, the rest of the roster pieces need to shift
to accommodate it somehow. Speculating on “what could have been” in baseball is
a game best saved for sadists and masochists.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Josh Hamilton has turned into a monster ball player after being
passed over by other MLB teams in his career due to the loaded personal
history, Reds included. Teams passed by
Pujols more than 400 times before he was selected in the 13<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> round
of the 1999 MLB Draft. Sometimes stories like that develop in baseball. More
often than not they don’t.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The goal of managing a baseball team’s roster is to constantly try
to strike balance between the parts and pieces of your club to improve on the
number of games you won. The Cincinnati Reds made marginal improvements to
their record in each of the years following Hamilton’s trade by addressing
priority needs the club didn’t have answers for, leading up to the 2010 NL
Central Championship.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Could it have happened sooner or with more frequency had Hamilton
stayed? We’ll never know. But we can be sure he isn’t coming back, so Reds fans
need to move on. Cincinnati has a ball club this year that hasn’t lost a series
in the last six and is two games over .500 in the second week of May. It may or
may not last all season, but that’s why the play the game. Fans need to shift
attention to the present cast of players wearing Cincinnati on their chest and
stop harping on the existence of a hypothetical roster that doesn’t exist and
never will.<o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-49292625456863306822012-04-02T21:34:00.008-04:002012-05-10T16:22:42.603-04:00Joey Votto: Setting the Cornerstone<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijW9TfSeiGE89AY-PxOC-8_HUHm4KFnM_y_8TxSnbnIOyUEuQLxBsCyUf9FYAt9sd3uwSDjdk7OKHuknUVtI5xEFSdw7q2N56GCMbsk11uC0QmVmFUIoc1c90PCEFQsvIezPWOJv4tRO8/s400/Reds-Pirates-Baseball.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br />
It may seem hyperbolic to call today a historic day for the rebuilding effort the Reds have been enduring since the mostly dark days of the 2000's. While you hate to jump the gun with labels like that, today's news of a long-term extension with 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto may well be the punctuation mark on what has certainly been the most aggressive off-season in recent team history. At a rumored <a href="http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2012/04/joey-votto-reds-contract-extension/1" target="_blank">ten years and $225 million</a>, the deal keeps Votto under team control for the next decade and beats a midnight deadline the first basemen set with the club to resolve an extension before the season. It is the largest deal in Cincinnati sports history, the fourth-largest in MLB history and the largest contract for a non-free agent ever.<br />
<br />
There's no question that Joey Votto got paid like most All-Star first basemen this off-season. With a baseball-leading .363 batting average with runners in scoring position over the last three seasons, he was bound to be. There's probably also no question that the Reds would have been outbid had he hit free agency at the conclusion of his previous contract in 2013.<br />
<br />
Earlier this Spring, Votto <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/jonmorosi/status/186951063490920449" target="_blank">commented on Pujols' move</a> to Los Angeles to Fox's Jon Morosi, remarking "I think Albert might find — not that I know — that St. Louis might have been a good market as far as him being a star." He later added that if he was elected into the Hall of Fame, Votto would like to be next to "The other Reds players [like] Bench and Morgan." With an extension that will keep him in red and white until 2023, he may well have that opportunity now.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Not So "All In" All of a Sudden</span></b><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLFmLpDD5aMK20e768VncT7V8MtY8vRS7Z-dilVBTwsiln0ygH0i0brXXYpoe29vVZ7TptLq5vB6k4jXwkqs02iQ4NmiQEz16zMhW5lPK-xD7FXIHKROFrQaUNstScjRt6CIsncQf8VNY/s1600/VottoBruce.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLFmLpDD5aMK20e768VncT7V8MtY8vRS7Z-dilVBTwsiln0ygH0i0brXXYpoe29vVZ7TptLq5vB6k4jXwkqs02iQ4NmiQEz16zMhW5lPK-xD7FXIHKROFrQaUNstScjRt6CIsncQf8VNY/s320/VottoBruce.jpg" width="222" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are about <br />
to spend a lot of time together.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
There are obviously implications to be determined by the specific year-by-year breakouts of the extension, but with any deal in that neighborhood, the Reds are committing about a quarter of their payroll for the forseeable future to make it happen. It's a tremendous commitment for a smaller market team like Cincinnati, but there's some immediate things to consider beyond Joey's on-field contributions alone (though most of them are entirely dependent on them).<br />
<br />
The news of a Votto extension is staggering on its own, but it's important to think about this deal in the context of the team's last two years. In 2010, the Reds <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5904871" target="_blank">extended Jay Bruce</a> with an Evan Longoria-esque, team-friendly contract extension for six years. Coupled with the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6042654" target="_blank">four-year extension</a> of Cueto and acquisition of Mat Latos with team control through 2015, Walt Jocketty has taken a two-year "All In" window and blown it wide open.<br />
<br />
Complimentary pieces like starter Mike Leake, reliever Sean Marshall and current-reliever-maybe-someday-starter Aroldis Chapman are also controlled comfortably for the next few years.<span class="postbody"> Other regular contributors like Zach Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are all under extended team control and haven't even hit arbitration yet. In terms of <a href="http://redleghomestand.blogspot.com/2011/12/welcome-mat-latos.html" target="_blank">the prospects lost in the Mat Latos trade</a> earlier this off-season, the pieces lost are looking more and more redundant with the extension of Votto by virtue of their positions.</span><br />
<span class="postbody"><br />
The potentially negative implication is that the team may now lose the payroll flexiblity to extend Brandon Phillips for the multiple years he is likely hoping for. When asked </span><span class="postbody">by Cincinnati's John Fay </span><span class="postbody">about this own ongoing contract negotiations and the Votto deal after it surfaced, <a href="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/04/02/latest-on-votto/" target="_blank">Phillips replied briefly with</a>, "</span>I just want to play baseball."<span class="postbody"> The Reds and Phillips' agent were reportedly on good terms earlier in the off-season, but it goes without saying that financial circumstances are very different now. </span><br />
<br />
<span class="postbody"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>How The Reds Will Pay for It </b> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="postbody">The $225-million question for the Reds is how they'll front the bill for Votto's services. The shock around baseball was Cincinnati's ability to pull the trigger on such a large financial commitment and the risks associated with it. There are a few components to consider in that equation, beyond merely paying the market value at first base set by Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder earlier this winter. </span><br />
<br />
<span class="postbody">First and foremost, the Reds are continuing to try to generate fan interest after the aforementioned Dark Period prior to Jocketty's arrival. Over the last three seasons, the Reds have built attendance from a meager 21,500 per game in 2009; to 25,400 in 2010; and 27,300 in 2011. This may seem like small potatoes to teams with near or complete sellouts virtually every game of the year, and in a lot of ways it is. The Reds </span><span class="postbody">are fairly </span><span class="postbody">consistently in the <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2011" target="_blank">middle to back of the pack</a> in attendance numbers and have been since the early 90's. Still, the trend is swinging in the right direction and another playoff run or two may push home attendance over that elusive 2,500,000 fan mark on the year. The aggressive moves this off-season should hopefully contribute to increased attention around Cincinnati and keep moving the needle on ticket and merchandise sales.</span><br />
<br />
<span class="postbody">Perhaps the more important consideration, though, is the restructuring of the team's current TV contract, which expires in 2016. While it's difficult to foresee exactly what that financial contribution will be, the last deal was signed when interest in the team was waning in 2008. As it stands, the team only makes $10 million a year, which is grossly out of line with some other recent TV deals, even in <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2011/12/23/baseball-teams-may-seek-new-tv-deals-due-to-spike-in-rights-fees/" target="_blank">semi-comparable market sizes</a>. This likely boon in money will come towards the middle part of Votto's contract and provide the team with some added flexibility.</span><br />
<br />
<span class="postbody">As is always the case, you try to maximize the opportunities to win in baseball for as long as you possibly can. When other deals come to bear in the latter parts of the Joey Votto contract, opinion around the financial commitment made to him may change. Without question, the Reds have taken on a risk with the 28-year-old Votto, hitching themselves to the first basemen with a contract that takes him even beyond Albert Pujols' playing commitments to the Angels. The team is gambling that the fans will take notice and show up. Joey Votto will try to help the cause </span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-88724259244078243452012-03-15T22:09:00.012-04:002012-04-03T08:58:02.594-04:00Utilizing the Utility GuysIt's less than three short weeks until the Reds begin their pursuit of another winning season. While the roster has begun to optimistically take shape for 2012, several minor questions are still being worked out in Arizona, including which utility players will round out the Opening Day 25-man roster. While you could perhaps argue that its a five-man battle for two roster spots between <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=236&position=2B/OF" target="_blank">Willie Harris</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1863&position=2B/SS" target="_blank">Wilson Valdez</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7412&position=SS" target="_blank">Paul Janish</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6978&position=3B" target="_blank">Juan Francisco</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=785&position=3B" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a>, its more realistically a battle of two players for one spot, if anything.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>The Outfielders</b></span><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXPz4lXWWKh4J-u_PvaTB4A3alKrq_sxwk8TNT6v5_ag8RNDvxC3mJXSydlwRpZI0LRQ5LWOxlnDZFfM2GSgooJmQaUePQ967MS2ABpaWZIRQXyNYv6O0077jcFB8SWKqrx0B3Lz6md-Y/s1600/heisey1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img aea="true" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXPz4lXWWKh4J-u_PvaTB4A3alKrq_sxwk8TNT6v5_ag8RNDvxC3mJXSydlwRpZI0LRQ5LWOxlnDZFfM2GSgooJmQaUePQ967MS2ABpaWZIRQXyNYv6O0077jcFB8SWKqrx0B3Lz6md-Y/s320/heisey1.jpg" width="218" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Chris Heisey stands to play a<br />
large role in the left field platoon</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
<div style="border: currentColor;">It's generally good practice in the National League to carry a second catcher, second third baseman and reserve utility infielder into the season with you. Without compromising pitching depth, it's tough to have room for more than a fourth outfielder.</div><div style="border: currentColor;"><br />
</div><div style="border: currentColor;">Bringing in Willie Harris was a great depth move by Reds GM Walt Jocketty this offseason, but his toolset (and contract terms by comparison) probably won't be enough to upend also acquired Ryan Ludwick for the fourth outfield spot. Harris will likely see some time with the Major League club at some point or another in the case of injury, but with a minor league deal he will mostly provide organizational security from AAA Louisville and be called on when needed in the outfield.</div><br />
<div style="border: currentColor;">Harris is a career .240 hitter and doesn't bring much power to the table. He hit .246 with a .668 OPS for the Mets last year in 283 plate appearances. With good plate discipline, he draws a lot of walks which have helped keep his on-base percentage above .340 for the last five years. Even though he will mostly factor into the outfield depth situation, it's worth noting that he is also a capable infielder in a pinch. While Harris was similarly... we'll say "serviceable" to Ludwick on a per at-bat basis last season, he's coming off several seasons in a fairly limited role and a comparable minor league deal with the Mets in 2011.</div><br />
As I <a href="http://redleghomestand.blogspot.com/2012/01/rounding-out-outfield.html" target="_blank">discussed earlier this year</a> upon Ludwick's arrival, he may stand to greatly improve his numbers spending most of his time in Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati's 133 ballpark homerun factor for righties is almost tailor made for Ludwick's tendencies. In the 30 games he's played there in his career, Ludwick has hit nine homeruns, powered 21 runs in, managed a .276 batting average and posted a .921 on-base-plus-slugging. In a lot of ways, though, it's unfair to call the Reds' fourth outfielder a utility contributor, especially when he's a veteran on a Dusty Baker team. When all is said and done, Ryan Ludwick may tip the playing time balance away from Chris Heisey in left field by season's end, for better or worse, based mostly on his veteran status. With both left fielders struggling in Goodyear so far - Heisey has hit .130 with 11 strikeouts while Ludwick has hit .190 with 7 K's - it's hard to make that prediction with total conviction this early on.<br />
<br />
“Obviously if one of us is hot, we’ll stick with that guy for a while.” <a href="http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120315/SPT04/303150135/Heisey-tries-to-keep-eyes-on-ball-off-his-average?source=nletter-nletter-sports" target="_blank">Heisey said</a> about he and Ludwick in left, adding that, "Right now, I don’t think one of us is going to get buried on the bench unless one of us is really struggling.”<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>The Infielders</b></span><br />
<br />
<div style="border: currentColor;">Paul Janish <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=janispa01&year=&t=b" target="_blank">likely played his way out</a> of backup shortstop consideration last year, in spite his defensive prowess. The arrival of Wilson Valdez, who can play almost any infield or outfield position and arrives without options should figure to keep Janish off the 25-man as well.</div><br />
All told, this means it's probably more of a Spring Training battle between Francisco and Frazier for the right to back up superveteran Scott Rolen at third with also-veteran Miguel Cairo. With Rolen's history of injury problems this is a fairly significant role for the Reds' hopes to contend in 2012 and might represent 200-250 at-bats for the club. <br />
<div style="border: currentColor;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1608813189" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu3Jb_dIoIwkalTwCAQcrPs_bJdcm7Q337wwSs9uEIfs4xbFfEzzvqpgTzhftgjE8P8LZcj7OIUoqJvG0ZLX5LHPDjRzcTMxNIAojDQyNUmVDk3SwjeAt-FVXlWk9b3fHt3FfBkDPCzMM/s200/todd-frazier-reds-e1306169368445.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Todd Frazier may give Juan <br />
Francisco a run for his money<br />
backing up Scott Rolen</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
</div>Francisco arrived to camp later than some of the other "on the bubble" utility players, and<a href="http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120312/SPT04/303120163/Francisco-s-spring-training-saga" target="_blank"> reportedly drew some concern</a> from Reds management. While Francisco has performed well enough since then, Frazier earned some brownie points with the club by reporting early and has motored along with a .280 average over 25 plate appearances while leading the club in homeruns (3) and RBI (8). Spring training numbers don't necessarily matter all that much (see: since traded <a href="http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=cin#playerType=ALL&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page_type=SortablePlayer&season=2011&season_type=ANY&sportCode=%27mlb%27&league_code=%27MLB%27&split=&team_id=113&active_sw=&game_type=%27S%27&position=%278%27&sortOrder=%27desc%27&sortColumn=ops&results=&page=1&perPage=50&timeframe=&extended=0&last_x_days=&ts=1331903573130&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting" target="_blank">Dave Sappelt, 2012</a>), but there is some potential debate between the two back-up third basemen beyond their performances in half a season in the Cactus League.<br />
<br />
Frazier is a more versatile reserve player and can cover all the spots around the horn in the infield, as well as play some corner outfield. Francisco may be able to play beyond first and third, but hasn't gotten any time away from the hot corner this Spring or in most of his Major League appearances to date. In 121 plate appearances last season, Frazier hit .232 but struggled from a below-average .253 batting average on balls put in play. He hit 6 homeruns and had 15 RBIs. Francisco hit .258 in 97 plate appearances for 3 homeruns and 15 RBIs himself. He posted a higher-than-average .318 batting average on balls in play, but given his power tendencies, the free-swinging Francisco will likely always be above league average in this category. Frazier's tools are a little more diversified, so the question is whether his production and versatility combined would trump Francisco's raw power alone, especially with a BABIP more in line with league average and Frazier's body of work in the minors.<br />
<br />
The likely trump card in this conversation, barring a trade, is that Juan Francisco is out of minor league options as well. With more power than arguably anyone in the organization, it's unlikely the Reds would be able to retain the young prospect if he was designated for assignment and made it to waivers. While Frazier's stock would probably keep him from clearing waivers in a similar circumstance, the club can still move him freely between the 25-man and 40-man active rosters for now. He's also a right-handed hitter where Francisco hits left-handed. While this may actually have been a boon for Frazier's chances to make the club out of camp a few years ago when the Reds were lefty-heavy, the 2012 club is short on left-handed bats off the bench. For that reason, Todd will probably start the year in Louisville again, patiently waiting for his number to be called.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-7160170042591115522012-02-19T14:54:00.005-05:002012-02-20T18:30:25.338-05:002012 Starting Pitching Preview<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpuPnv0NmLla0jPeNW5K7R4ilKcbTrUnkviRHQO72j3V3YHjtncC6lzTKjNqAdo7qlXMkQnmjpSPLbo5ZCe4kFL4hXfOlau-2VI91evLTBw0X39nZCkhQVBEEmmRe0OZYv7fg9yQSynd0/s1600/RedsST.jpg" /></div><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Spring Has Sprung</span></b><br />
<b><br />
</b>The Cincinnati Reds pitchers and catchers have reported to Arizona and the extended baseball season is officially upon us. On the heels of the team's first division title in over a decade in 2010, the Reds contended with injuries and underproduction in 2011, limping to a sub-.500 record and a third place finish in the division. Following an aggressive offseason and some significant power shifts in the rest of the NL Central, the start of Spring Training this year is surrounded by renewed optimism and a few new faces.<br />
<br />
Last season, the Reds went to Goodyear feeling particularly good about their <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/2011/2611139.html" target="_blank">starting pitching depth</a>. After injuries to Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, a case of mononucleosis for Bronson Arroyo, and a case of continued unmet potential for the since traded Edinson Volquez, that song quickly became the lullaby that largely put the team's 2011 hopes to bed early. After the busy offseason, the club hopes to have provided depth to not only their rotation, but the larger 25 man roster. It's still early to predict the Opening Day lineup with total certainty in February, but with pitchers and catchers reporting, it seemed like an opportune moment to take preliminary look at your new look Reds pitching staff.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">The Rotation</span><br />
</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxkSiBc2I4a4jt_jiLcKeYNb6B9HlQazrptM4ZrEwaAuISuOEn4TjHNg5Uph0oa0sZeZaXduDbqIJ-6eIqwfBbdbtERAJ1fhD6tg7mhRRRP__WrnHbrpOO6OfWrOUIWHsGPr4vAzPy8BA/s1600/cuetotiant.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxkSiBc2I4a4jt_jiLcKeYNb6B9HlQazrptM4ZrEwaAuISuOEn4TjHNg5Uph0oa0sZeZaXduDbqIJ-6eIqwfBbdbtERAJ1fhD6tg7mhRRRP__WrnHbrpOO6OfWrOUIWHsGPr4vAzPy8BA/s1600/cuetotiant.jpg" /></a>After missing the start of the season with injury, <b>Johnny Cueto</b> was a terrific bright spot for the Reds in his 24 starts last year. Cueto added an extra hitch to a Luis Tiant-like delivery and traded in his marginally higher career strikeout ratio for more groundball inducing strikes, improving his efficiency with the Reds elite defense behind him. Cueto finished the season with a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6893&position=P" target="_blank">2.31 ERA and 3.45 FIP</a>, but the .249 batting average on balls hit in play against him will be extremely difficult to replicate, in spite of the Reds defense. Still, in a staff that clearly needed a potential ace to emerge, Cueto took a huge step forward in 2011. A position on top of the rotation will put increased pressure on Johnny's durability and he will need to make more than 24 starts to really set the team over the top in key pitching matchups throughout the season.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">Beyond Cueto, the Reds needed another bona fide option at the top of their pitching rotation to take the next step as a club. Given the club's payroll limitation, the solution needed to be team controlled, affordable and acquirable through a trade. Enter <b>Mat Latos</b>. In the team's largest deal of the offseason, the Reds parted with several highly touted prospects to land the 24-year old righty from San Diego. A 2.92 ERA pitching, 14 game winning strikeout machine in 2010, Latos had a shaky start to 2011 before drastically improving throughout the year and finishing with a 1.96 ERA through five starts in September. While he is making the transition from pitcher-friendly San Diego to bandbox-resembling Great American Ballpark, <a href="http://redleghomestand.blogspot.com/2011/12/welcome-mat-latos.html" target="_blank">Latos is well-fit to make the transition</a> and gives the Reds top of the rotation pitching depth that they simply haven't had in several years.<br />
<br />
The order of the rest of the rotation is arguably a little more difficult to predict. <b>Bronson Arroyo</b> apparently contended with the effects of mono for most of the 2011 season and posted his worst ERA since 2001 at 5.07. He still managed to give the Reds around 200 innings, but surrendered a soul-crushing 46 homeruns - more than two per nine innings pitched. Reds fans should take solace in the fact that the 2011 Bad Bronson epidemic was arguably the worst in his career and a performance he probably won't repeat. If the lingering effects of mono kept him from performing up to his career numbers last season, 2012 should (hopefully) be a little easier on the usually reliable veteran. The size of his contract pretty much guarantees that he will likely remain a starter somewhere on the team, but his production and recovery will likely dictate where and to what extent.<br />
<br />
<b>Mike Leake</b> had a bumpy sophomore start out of the gate last year with a 5.06 ERA through May and a shoplifting charge in April. He also spent some time in AAA Louisville for the first time in his career, from May 14th to May 28th. After shaking off the start, he became one of the most productive starters for the team, posting a 3.45 ERA for the remainder of the season. Leake won 12 games and regularly worked five different pitches into his delivery, averaging a respectable 6.33 strikeouts per nine innings and a Great-American-favorable groundball rate near 50%. Leake finished the season with a 2.74 ERA in three September starts and will play a considerable role in the middle of the 2012 rotation.<br />
<br />
<b>Homer Bailey </b>enters his sixth season now, and Reds fans everywhere are still waiting for him to have "the year" that he puts it all together. In 22 starts in 2011, Homer won nine games and was one of the only Reds pitchers to have an ERA (4.43) worse than his FIP (4.06). He had two different DL stints with shoulder tendinitis and his durability remains the biggest obstacle to a truly productive full season, much as it has for his whole career. With the <a href="http://redleghomestand.blogspot.com/2011/12/out-goes-wood-in-comes-marshall.html">departure of Travis Wood</a>, Homer will almost certainly play into the back of the rotation plan. With terrific stuff and moments of brilliance, it's tough to say what the Reds really have in the once "can't miss prospect" given some of Bailey's issues with consistency. With other potential options waiting in the wings and the likely reality that Bailey will spend at least some time on the DL, it will be interesting to see if his role changes throughout the course of the season.<br />
<br />
<b style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="font-size: large;">Wildcards</span></b><br />
<div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDTP5eweFSyAvypu9U26N2L-bB8VjKkxcMavuuDtB8cR9Iuey0YWMLUEAdGJDHu1fFuVx4teVpIh7ntUvM4h_5bm6VGVgGSqmItfIIWNLP6FrevS8VtKZ8-UcLmaPu8rMROGGFgw2uDFo/s1600/chapmanst.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDTP5eweFSyAvypu9U26N2L-bB8VjKkxcMavuuDtB8cR9Iuey0YWMLUEAdGJDHu1fFuVx4teVpIh7ntUvM4h_5bm6VGVgGSqmItfIIWNLP6FrevS8VtKZ8-UcLmaPu8rMROGGFgw2uDFo/s1600/chapmanst.jpg" /></a><br />
The Reds still have some depth in the minors that will likely be thrown into the mix at some point this season. The most intriguing option is Cuban flamethrower<b> Aroldis Chapman</b>. Chapman had an up and down, mostly good campaign in 2011. At one point, he gave up over eight runs and retired just one opposing batter through three games out of the bullpen. After being placed on the DL for issues with his shoulder, he returned to strike out 56 batters in 37 innings with a 2.43 ERA. The Reds have begun to transition Chapman <a href="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/10/06/chapman-to-begin-transition-to-starter/" target="_blank">from the bullpen back into the rotation</a>, and after missing Winter Ball with injury, he will likely get his first starts in Spring Training this year. While he will probably begin the season in AAA, he may get the call at one point or another based on his own production or injuries to one of the starters.<br />
<br />
Other suitors for some major league exposure are veteran <b>Jeff Francis </b>and super-veteran <b>Brett Tomko </b>who both enter on minor league deals. Francis was a 17 game winner for Colorado in 2007 before injuries derailed his production in 2008 and 2009. Last season, he posted a 4.82 ERA and 6-16 record for the Royals over 31 starts. Tomko debuted with the Reds in 1997 and was one of the players dealt to bring Ken Griffey Jr. to Cincinnati in 2000. With a career 5.99 ERA, his addition was a depth signing and at least provides the Reds with a seasoned professional who could likely be relied on for an occasional emergency start, as needed.<br />
<br />
In general, the Reds once again have starting pitching depth on paper to start Spring Training. It's always difficult to say exactly who will play where in a Dusty Baker rotation. Beyond preference in splitting up lefties and righties, Dusty has <a href="http://m.si.com/news/to/to/detail/2911152;jsessionid=01C9D11028FF0C2A8E9313D0B1A49180.cnnsi1b" target="_blank">an acknowledged belief</a> in separating pitchers who have similar deliveries or tendencies. This is worth noting, particularly with two finesse pitchers like Arroyo and Leake both seemingly best fit for a spot in the middle of the order. Hopefully this depth on paper won't be put to the test to quite the same extent as 2011.</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-37496672430617222272012-01-17T21:42:00.007-05:002012-02-19T14:25:07.522-05:00Rounding Out the Outfield<div class="separator" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXM4MsM_6cnwW9iMdnHVpKTJzY4XrMfio9hTo7ecbpNj8bsqRry-1crPCqywpF17uxsI8qPm0p5ky3Iv-I_N0sbbX9JIoFASTeuazL5CMf0EX8xDGt0HdE6xmOQfH4ODNYF27gdrB5X04/s320/RLudwick.jpg" width="218" /></div>The Reds have signed veteran outfielder <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1260&position=OF" target="_blank">Ryan Ludwick</a> to their 2012 efforts with a $2.5 million contract and a nominal mutual option for 2013. The contract has up to $500,000 in performance incentives and affordably adds much-needed depth to the Reds outfield. Ludwick can play either corner outfield spot, giving the Reds the flexibility to slide Chris Heisey to center to spell Drew Stubbs when needed without compromising depth behind Jay Bruce. With less severe lefty-righty hitting splits than the young Heisey, Ludwick adds a more consistent and versatile option to the outfield mix while adding very well-regarded veteran leadership to the clubhouse.<br />
<br />
Ludwick spent most of his major league career with the Cardinals and had his career year with them in 2008, batting .299 with 37 homeruns and 113 runs batted in. It goes without saying, though, that hitting in front of Albert Pujols probably benefited the outfielder to a certain extent. Still, Ludwick is a career .261 hitter with power who, other than the last few years, was good for an OPS of at least .775. Sluggers who can power in 100+ or even 75+ RBIs a season don't typically go for $2.5 million, though, and his performance in recent seasons is the biggest factor in his diminished value.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Did Ludwick Lose his Pop?</span></b><br />
<br />
Ludwick is coming off a few disappointing seasons, where he spent most of his time in San Diego's monstrous Petco Park. During that time, the traditionally slugging Ludwick had some potentially concerning trends with his isolated power numbers, which is a hitter's slugging percentage minus his batting average per at bat. The metric measures the extra base hits that a hitter averages per at bat and is a better measure of a batter's pure power than slugging percentage, which factors singles into the equation. Where Ludwick hovered around a respectable .200 ISO during his time with St. Louis, he never exceeded .135 in San Diego or in his cameo appearance for the Pirates during the second half of last year. The major league average, even taking soft-hitting shortstops into account, has hovered around .150 since 2002.<br />
<br />
That decline is certainly not a good power trend to be coming off of. Still, it's difficult to isolate Ludwick's decline strictly to his power all of a sudden being sapped. The righty really didn't change his tendencies as a hitter during the last three years, posting consistent line drive, flyball, strike-out and walk rates even as his power numbers seemingly began to suffer. <br />
<br />
A culprit worth noting in this decline was Ludwick's batting average on balls in play, which may be more of a symptom than a driver of his poor statistics in this case. Where the general league average is around .300, Ludwick never managed a BABIP above .277 since leaving Saint Louis, which isn't a fall off the cliff, necessarily, but isn't the norm for a 20% line drive hitter. The big contributor to that discrepancy may lie in what Ludwick does with the other 80% of his batted balls, namely his tendency to hit a lot of flyballs.<br />
<br />
Petco Park has some of the deepest outfield dimensions in baseball and in addition to spending most of his last two seasons there, Ludwick spent a lot of time playing division games in also-cavernous Los Angeles and San Francisco. For a flyball hitter in a pitcher's park, good contact hits that may be homeruns in other parks most often turn into deep fly outs. In Petco's case, lefties are much more suppressed than righties like Ludwick on homeruns, but both are suppressed more in San Diego than most parks in the majors. If fewer balls are leaving the park and becoming outs instead, it not only will suppress the traditional average and slugging numbers, but it reduces the hitter's production in the true outcome events that are measured in BABIP.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBIWSGTAZrrDM-bGRKP-8_BfahFSgPtmQzGRaYeUjB9YizM9d3K3Kt9XfAywfF6IOb7DxAP0mveVc2SNziSDwVDyehMJoCyzmDk757qispz_eAgbNqalE9CADobb21poTYOMxdo1DFDi4/s1600/GABP.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBIWSGTAZrrDM-bGRKP-8_BfahFSgPtmQzGRaYeUjB9YizM9d3K3Kt9XfAywfF6IOb7DxAP0mveVc2SNziSDwVDyehMJoCyzmDk757qispz_eAgbNqalE9CADobb21poTYOMxdo1DFDi4/s320/GABP.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Locations of all homeruns (blue) and fly outs (orange)<br />
hit in Petco last year, overlayed on Great American Ballpark</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Great American Ball Park is the antithesis to Petco and may, in fact, be a better fit for Ludwick's tendencies than even other hitter's parks. While Great American isn't necessarily shallow in left-center or center field where Ludwick hits many of his homeruns, it's much shorter down the line at 328 feet and more friendly in the gap at 379 feet. Great American Ball Park has one of the best homerun park factors for righties in baseball at 133, a pretty large jump from Petco's 95.<br />
<br />
To partially illustrate some of these differences, take a look at the image to the right. This park map charts the locations of all homeruns (blue) and fly outs (orange) hit in Petco last season, overlayed against the dimensions of Great American Ballpark. While this doesn't tell the whole picture, it's worth noting that <a href="http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/">if you similarly chart</a> just Ludwick's homeruns and fly outs from last season, two of his fly outs would have been homeruns in Great American's right field.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">What to Actually Expect</span></b><br />
<br />
It would be foolish to expect a heroic renaissance of epic proportions like the season Ludwick had in 2008, especially in the number of plate appearances he will likely get by comparison. It's hard to weigh the specific causes of some of Ludwick's issues in the last few years, so it's tough to lay his reduced numbers strictly at the feet of Petco's large outfield dimensions. That said, the switch of parks alone should make Ludwick a much more valuable contributor in 2012 considering his low price tag.<br />
<br />
If he can hit close to his career average while maintaining a .775+ OPS and an .200+ ISO, Ludwick could easily add one or two wins to the Reds efforts in 2012. It will be interesting to see how time is divided between he, Heisey and Stubbs, though. While it's safe to say Bruce is anchored in right other than a day off here and there, Heisey may see some increased playing time in center based on matchups. It wouldn't be out of the question to see all three of Ludwick, Heisey and Stubbs seeing north of 400 plate apperances in 2012, but as always, player production will tell the tale.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-12188659749271527752012-01-12T19:11:00.030-05:002012-02-20T18:29:37.173-05:00Reds Find Their Closer in Madson<div class="separator" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh37zd9rsQo9v9Wcc6BPmgfpMBGrT_0VolH_XHZm3GWyBfKDSwMyZcq1S5iUFtiAGuMu63-c9TNqVn83nUClAm6oVHGIuLDVrn3bTnFODBaXnKBik7zHDEgCeKUdb0-HT65Onavipeo2Hw/s320/799199113_a52a8608b9.jpg" width="240" /></div><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Cincinnati Reds have agreed to add free-agent closer <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1852&position=P" target="_blank">Ryan Madson</a>, answering the closer question raised by Francisco Cordero's departure and providing another shot in the arm to the 2012 roster. After trying to come to an agreement with Cordero over the last few weeks, Reds GM Walt Jocketty gave the closer and his agent a soft deadline to come to a consensus. As of Tuesday, the club was <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/johnfayman/status/156895879293452288" target="_blank">downplaying interest</a> in Madson, but with the closer market relatively dry at this point, the Reds were finally able to come to terms with the righty's agent Scott Boras, ending their pursuit of Cordero.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
In 2012, Madson will be due about $6 million by the club, half of what Cordero would have made had the Reds picked up his option for this season. In 2013, there is a mutual option for $11 million, with a $2.5 million buy-out should the Reds decide to go in another direction. It's no small feat to land a one-year deal for a Scott Boras free agent, especially when the player in question was <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7451360/ryan-madson-agent-scott-boras-ruben-amaro-jr-philadelphia-phillies-differ-details" target="_blank">linked to a four-year, $44 million deal</a> with the Phillies earlier this year<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b style="font-family: inherit;">The Numbers Don't Lie</b></span> <br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
In terms of converting saves, Madson was the third most efficient reliever in baseball for the Phillies in 2011, converting 32-34 of his save opportunities as Brad Lidge dealt with injuries for most of the year. He was notably terrific against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .198 batting average and a .506 OPS. Madson maintained a 2.37 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 ratio through his 61 innings, where he induced a ground ball rate just short of 49%. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
Other than a mid-90's fastball, Madson has a deadly change-up in his arsenal as a true put away pitch. He threw the pitch more than half of the time on two-strike counts last year with lethal results. The pitch had the second largest amount of break to the right of change-ups in baseball, was out of the strike zone nearly 75% of the time, but was still swung at more than 65% of the time. Most importantly, the pitch was only put into play about 25% of the time. This is a significant advantage for a righty closer since the change-up is arguably the most effective neutralizing pitch against left-handed hitters, as reflected in Madson's other peripherals.</span><br />
<br />
<b style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: large;">Bringing the Offseason into Perspective</span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">While debate will almost certainly continue around the number of prospects the Reds parted ways with in the Latos and Marshall trades, it's important to consider their impact on the larger offseason and this deal. If the Reds are particularly committed to winning in the remaining two years of Votto's contract, Madson's addition adds to the number of options the team has to compete with during that time. In addition to having the option of extending Marshall, the Reds now have another bona fide late-inning reliever in Madson under club control to consider going into 2013. The move can also let the team comfortably try Aroldis Chapman as a starter in the minor leagues to finally assess his value in that role in the future.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">There's a number of factors that will contribute to the team's decisions beyond the 2012 season, from attendance bumps to (hopefully) playoff revenue. But in the time the team is guaranteed to have with Votto, they have </span>maximized<span style="font-family: inherit;"> their number of quality options to go forward with, or not. But for this season, the acquisition has arguably given the Reds one of the better bullpens in the National League. Where Cordero was a solid but perhaps declining contributor, the money saved by not extending him brought a combined 4.5 WAR in Madson and Marshall, and gave the team flexibility to consider their options as they go "all in."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
Take a look at the numbers of some major relief contributors from 2011 (FanGraphs):</span><br />
</span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 493px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4425; mso-width-source: userset; width: 91pt;" width="121"></col><col span="8" style="mso-width-alt: 1316; mso-width-source: userset; width: 27pt;" width="36"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 1645; mso-width-source: userset; width: 34pt;" width="45"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 1426; mso-width-source: userset; width: 29pt;" width="39"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; width: 91pt;" width="121"></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">W</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">L</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">SV</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">G</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">IP</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">K/9</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">BB/9</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 27pt;" width="36"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">HR/9</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 34pt;" width="45"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">ERA</span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 29pt;" width="39"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">WAR</span></b></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Sean Marshall</b></span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">6</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">6</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">5</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">78</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">75.2</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">9.4</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.02</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0.12</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.26</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.8</span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Ryan Madson</b></span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">4</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">32</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">62</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">60.2</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">9.2</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.37</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0.3</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.37</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.7</span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Bill Bray</b></span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">5</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">3</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">79</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">48.1</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">8.19</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">3.17</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0.56</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.98</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0.7</span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Nick Masset</b></span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">3</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">6</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">75</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">70.1</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">7.93</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">3.97</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0.64</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">3.71</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0.6</span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Logan Ondrusek</b></span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">5</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">5</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">66</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">61.1</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">6.02</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">4.11</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0.88</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">3.23</span></td><td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">-0.2</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-89359783615930440852012-01-09T15:06:00.007-05:002012-01-19T08:56:51.516-05:00Congratulations Barry Larkin!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">2012 MLB Hall of Fame Inductee</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><img border="0" rea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC-V3Mk1g8Y7bhROXHT5LMDgPgS3lE6LL14ozCFdXQ_ZIB1unRtovIdqaaReils1Rk7Vg4o4LEV_ixCalkNn-2a9_f2_5T69sp9N4pjAzpI3v-j-vNuwh3QetPYP5Geur0P5xkGWIRzoE/s1600/barrylarkin.jpg" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-11503089416328103942012-01-01T12:51:00.022-05:002012-02-19T14:27:49.212-05:00What's Left on the Farm?<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">The arrival of <a href="http://redleghomestand.blogspot.com/2011/12/welcome-mat-latos.html" target="_blank">Mat Latos</a> and <a href="http://redleghomestand.blogspot.com/2011/12/out-goes-wood-in-comes-marshall.html" target="_blank">Sean Marshall</a> has improved the outlook and expectations for the 2012 Reds season, but came at the expense of some highly coveted prospects. In the trades that brought Latos and Marshall over, the Reds parted with <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2530&position=1B/OF" target="_blank">Yonder Alonso</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa392198&position=C" target="_blank">Yasmani Grandal</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa328086&position=P" target="_blank">Brad Boxberger</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9884&position=P" target="_blank">Travis Wood</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6898&position=OF" target="_blank">Dave Sappelt</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa546565&position=2B" target="_blank">Ronald Torreyes</a>. Alonso and Grandal were both first round picks and ranked fourth and sixth respectively in Baseball America's <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611110.html" target="_blank">2011 top prospect list</a>. Prior to being packaged in the Marshall trade, Torreyes projected to be on <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612581.html" target="_blank">the team's 2012 list</a>. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">Excluding players like Devin Mesoroco, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier who saw some fairly significant playing time in 2011, here's a look at five of the Reds' top prospects following the Latos and Marshall deals.</span><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;"><br />
</b><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">Billy Hamilton - Shortstop</b><br />
<div style="text-align: right;"></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1721130973" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtsrbfls-xPhqK7tVWSHY6FvzjB7gmoANoxb553XQAqgK9KUYTflqPGIJqf6L31Akih0T6f8VUIDnBX3p-DRK4Hv1vwDBw3v_e_bJNlWNJlo-NVUZLvywSCO4PqUj0EaaT2xKCkWBI4bs/s1600/Billy_Hamilton_Front_large_large.jpg" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Billy Hamilton had an astounding 103 stolen</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">bases for the Dayton Dragons last year.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">Other than the excluded Mesoroco, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa500815&position=SS" target="_blank">Hamilton</a> is in line to be the Reds next top prospect and figures to be in the middle infield mix as the Reds move forward in the next few years. His success will largely hinge on Hamilton's ability to improve his contact rate, allowing him to </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">truly</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">take advantage of his elite speed. After 610 plate appearances in 2011, Hamilton had stolen a whopping 103 bases and ended up with a steal virtually every other time he reached base. He has a strong batting average on balls in play, but had a fairly unspectacular .340 on-base percentage last year, due largely to his 133 stirkeouts - all in single A Dayton, where pitching talent hasn't yet developed to the major-league level. If Hamilton can improve his </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">strikeout and walk numbers, he has the raw tools to make him an intriguing future leadoff option with </span></span><span style="line-height: 18px;">base-running</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> speed to burn.</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;"> For now, expect him to start his 2012 season in high A to work on those peripherals.</span><br />
<b style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></b><br />
<b style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Daniel Corcino - Pitcher (R)</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Right-handed pitching prospect <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa503992&position=P" target="_blank">Daniel Corcino</a> is arguably the top arm in the current Reds system, though he may still be several years away from contributing at the major-league level. Corcino pitched in single A during 2011, securing an 11-7 record with a 3.42 ERA. In just under 140 innings, Corcino issued a mere 34 walks, while fanning 156 batters in that time. He has a strong mid-90's fastball and works in a slider and changeup to keep opposing hitters off-balance. That said, his smaller frame (5' 11" and 165 pounds)</span><span style="line-height: 18px;"> may make his inning-eating durability a question mark in the future based on his body of work. 2011 was the first year that Corcino eclipsed the 100 inning mark and he will likely be </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">stretched out </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">further</span><span style="line-height: 18px;"> in high A to start the 2012 season.</span></span><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;"><br />
</b><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">Robert Stephenson - Pitcher (R)</b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> The 18-year-old Robert Stephenson was the </span></span><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcincinnati.reds.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Farticle.jsp%3Fymd%3D20110606%26content_id%3D20105810%26vkey%3Dnews_cin%26c_id%3Dcin&ei=T5MAT_T1H4asgwfsu6WUDw&usg=AFQjCNFuLWKIZoyuCZIs3GMZRSqSMvlB9w&sig2=hFnobshr2BoPNrsX5sT3MA" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">27th overall pick in the 2011 draft</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> after throwing back-to-back no-hitters for his high school team. Stephenson has a mid-to-high-90's fastball that Reds scouts clocked at as high as 98 mph. With a strong curveball, Stephenson will </span></span><span style="line-height: 18px;">likely</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> work to develop his third offering in low A ball this season to improve his total command of the strike zone. With a projectable frame, his peripheral qualities and arsenal could help Stephenson advance through the minors quickly in the years to come.</span></span><br />
<b style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></b><br />
<b style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">DiDi Gregorius - Shortstop</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">A European prospect from Amsterdam, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gregor003mar" target="_blank">Gregorius</a> finished 2011 with the AA Carolina Mudcats after 46 games with A+ Bakersfield, where he hit .303 with a .457 slugging percentage in 203 plate appearances. </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">In a combined 336 at-bats, he only struck out a respectable 50 times. Improving his walk rate should improve his .324 OBP and will be an area of focus for the shortstop with the Mudcats this season.</span><span style="line-height: 18px;"> </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">His </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">production</span><span style="line-height: 18px;"> dropped slightly after advancing to Carolina last year, where he hit .270 in 160 plate appearances. Despite the small sample offensive splits, his glove work remained a plus asset for the young infielder at both levels of competition. Based on his production and ability to improve his overall strike zone management, he could be a candidate for AAA promotion sooner than later.</span></span><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;"><br />
</b><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">Neftali Soto - First Base</b><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIl5WX-xDe4-IfgXmH4tZroZcYt23zTZ4F6j0t9fxPgkueOepoMZ2kXeQPpgvzZZa9Nq8D3rsGNeDh8OPfiodew3Uj-wuuFPx8emASdXeBKlRQtu8sJE0wRwprPvPpAbW2HoF5TnrxNlk/s1600/TmZRmrr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIl5WX-xDe4-IfgXmH4tZroZcYt23zTZ4F6j0t9fxPgkueOepoMZ2kXeQPpgvzZZa9Nq8D3rsGNeDh8OPfiodew3Uj-wuuFPx8emASdXeBKlRQtu8sJE0wRwprPvPpAbW2HoF5TnrxNlk/s200/TmZRmrr4.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Neftali Soto lead all Reds minor-leaguers<br />
with 31 homeruns in 2011.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">With the departure of Alonso, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389877&position=1B/3B" target="_blank">Soto</a> would seem to be the in-house heir apparent for Joey Votto at first base should he leave the team after his current contract expires. Originally drafted in 2007, Neftali was a slow riser through the Reds minor league system, but displayed marked improvements to his numbers over the last two seasons. Soto has greatly improved his power potential, and had 31 homeruns in two levels of competition last year, where he powered in 80 runs in 396 at-bats. He has room to improve his walk and strikeout numbers, drawing 23 and 98 respectively in 432 plate appearances last season. Soto is not a particularly outstanding defender, but has seemingly found a home at first which could contribute to a sense of consistency for improvement. While there are holes to improve in his lunging swing, Soto will begin the year in AAA and may be in the mix to contribute to the major league club should team injury or his own production prompt a move. </span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-41132596073253538942011-12-21T20:29:00.035-05:002012-02-19T14:28:55.253-05:00Out Goes Wood, In Comes Marshall<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_978779563" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVnJScm22VnSfWR3IoIMGLjGuCkxLSDLAayvByR0Bvkmthr4TiobAgCHH9m0xWBVcyJghuoG2HUWc_ktbwLZNwhtguF1uOv6Tlh7PE8y2LFHRr8NCfbkOOJVrECJXBwUKUW_4SP9f4Xog/s1600/SMarshall.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sean Marshall has lead all major-league<br />
relievers in WAR with 5.0 since 2010</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Well, I apparently picked a good week to start this little love affair of a blog. On the heels of this weekend's acquisition of Mat Latos, the Cincinnati Reds have agreed to a trade with the Chicago Cubs that will send Travis Wood and prospects Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes to Wrigley in exchange for lefty reliever <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5905&position=P" target="_blank">Sean Marshall.</a><br />
<br />
Marshall has, in terms of wins above replacement, been the single most valuable reliever in baseball over the last two years, averaging 2.5 WAR each season - a pretty staggering statistic for someone used primarily as a setup man. The 29-year-old, once-starter has spent his entire career with the Cubs to this point. After fully converting to a reliever in 2010, he broke out as one of the best relief talents in the National League. Over 150 innings, he has posted a 2.45 ERA. In that time, he has given up 22 doubles, one triple and just four homeruns. In 75 innings last year, he gave up just one homerun and 19 earned runs while facing 307 opposing batters and striking 79 of them out.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9884&position=P">Travis Wood</a> came on the scene in 2010 and had an impressive rookie campaign for the Reds, going 5-4 in 17 starts with a 3.51 ERA. Interestingly, he made his debut against the very club he is now about to play for, holding the Cubs to two hits and two runs. In just his third big-league start, Wood came within three outs of throwing the second perfect game in Reds history, but instead ended up with a no-decision in an eventual 1-0 loss to the Phillies. His sophomore season wasn't quite as rosy, with Wood going 6-6 in 18 starts with a 4.84 ERA. He spent time in AAA Louisville, pitching ten games and going 2-3 with a 5.33 ERA. Still, the young southpaw has displayed moments of brilliance in his short career and stands to be at worst a solid back of the rotation solution for the Cubs going forward.<br />
<br />
In these deals, however, there is always a rub in projecting value. This time around, it all has to do with contract length. Marshall is going into his contract year and stands to be a free agent in 2013. With the Reds' payroll constraints and the money Marshall will be able to command as a premium reliever, it may be difficult to extend him beyond this season. Wood, on the other hand, is under team control through 2016. With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, Cincinnati won't even get a compensation pick for Marshall should he choose to walk after his contract is up unless the trade makes an outrageous arbitration offer. If the Latos trade polarized the Reds fan base, this one has truly left Cincinnati fans as a house divided because of these disparities.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Facing Facts</span><br />
</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVwfWbStQtxUCLnbPWZTUaXovsYbly5h0GQnuQ8TTMN9R24WLEmAnYZrwRM3mj1gYqS6isqzbruQgW3tPbMjFncxo2qvS-U-B9wU_NA_trefh84hWx5aoRcCOqqrGvUCcmvuidjEPW33s/s1600/wood.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVwfWbStQtxUCLnbPWZTUaXovsYbly5h0GQnuQ8TTMN9R24WLEmAnYZrwRM3mj1gYqS6isqzbruQgW3tPbMjFncxo2qvS-U-B9wU_NA_trefh84hWx5aoRcCOqqrGvUCcmvuidjEPW33s/s320/wood.jpg" width="240" /></a>There's no question that this is a shorter-term move for the Reds, further signifying the "all in" mentality I mentioned in the earlier post about Mat Latos' arrival. It's entirely debatable whether it was the right move and, as is always the case in baseball, 162 games will sort out right from wrong. That said, for all Wood's potential, he wouldn't have the same opportunity to succeed with Cincinnati that he will elsewhere. While the same was true about Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal by virtue of being blocked at their positions, Travis may not have been a good fit for reasons beyond that.<br />
<br />
Great American Ballpark is a hitter's park that by its nature is particularly unforgiving to flyball pitchers like Travis Wood. In 106 innings last season, Wood had a low groundball rate of 32.1% and while he put away a respectable 6.5 batters with strikeouts per nine innings, his sub .65 flyout to groundball ratio doesn't project well for the small confines of Great American Ballpark. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=9884&position=P&season=2011" target="_blank">His home and away splits support this reality</a>, with Wood posting a 5.86 ERA at home last year, almost a full two points above his 3.90 ERA on the road in a similar sample of innings pitched. While he gave up a similar number of hits at home (60) and away (58) in 2011, he gave up four times as many homeruns in Great American as he did on the road, in part resulting in 33 earned runs versus 24 in other ballparks. With Latos' arrival, he was simply the sixth man in a five-man ' rotation and the team moved him for Marshall who should contribute to a larger extent in 2012.<br />
<br />
The addition of a reliever of Marshall's caliber and the ongoing vacancy for the Reds closer role begs the question of whether the club would consider him for that spot or not. While it is certainly a possibility based on his FIP and while bullpen roles are often subject to change over the course of a year (see Saint Louis Cardinals, 2011 World Champions), I think Marshall will primarily serve as a setup man for the Reds. While you have to take sample sizes with a grain of salt, here are the numbers of opposing batters against him last year, with plate appearances in parentheses:<br />
<ul><li><span style="background-color: white;">Seventh inning: <span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">.198/.244/.247 (59 PA)</span></span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white;">Eighth inning: </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">.220/.259/.265 (140 PA)</span></span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white;">Ninth inning: </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">.340/.375/.396 (87 PA)</span></span></li>
</ul>I won't get into baseball's eternal debate about whether any good reliever can perform well closing games and pitching in the ninth inning. For all intents and purposes, though, some pitchers are just plain better suited for certain roles. And in a setup role for the last two years, Sean Marshall has empirically been one of the best relievers in baseball.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">What Still Might Be Cooking</span></b><br />
<br />
Since you could almost argue for or against a one-for-one trade for Wood and Marshall based on <a href="http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/12/kaplan-cubs-will-blow-up-team-and-rebuild-cubs-not-players-on-fielder/">Chicago's desire to start rebuilding</a>, the inclusion of minor leaguers <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6898&position=OF">Dave Sappelt</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa546565&position=2B">Ronald Torreyes</a> might signify that the Reds hope to extend Marshall beyond 2012, if possible. He is due $3.1 million in 2012 which is expensive in terms of replacement relief talent, but still more than reasonable for his abilities. The team may have wanted to secure team control for a potential extension during the season before the talented Marshall would hit free agency, where bidding might be competitive.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZPa0wnhKpisDSAbfDpM1MSVo8GUKQENuQk9DbJUwMJWV7uiLpEv73Wi7W0kfLCHvvvgoyWiymZCdaoBBhyguvS1Gv1CwcAuYTauWGAOFWdOTk9k0g40Tv2tf3WM2Fql9Fc8XevCEEksM/s1600/sappelt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZPa0wnhKpisDSAbfDpM1MSVo8GUKQENuQk9DbJUwMJWV7uiLpEv73Wi7W0kfLCHvvvgoyWiymZCdaoBBhyguvS1Gv1CwcAuYTauWGAOFWdOTk9k0g40Tv2tf3WM2Fql9Fc8XevCEEksM/s320/sappelt.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dave Sappelt hit .564 in Spring <br />
Training for the Reds last season </td></tr>
</tbody></table>Sappelt had a monster line at Spring Training last season, hitting .564 in 38 at-bats with three homeruns and 12 RBI. He spent most of the season in Louisville playing center field and hitting .313 with seven homeruns and a .358 average against lefties. He was called up to the Reds in early August after <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3978&position=OF&season=2011" target="_blank">Chris Heisey</a> injured his oblique and appeared in just under 40 games, going .243 with only 5 RBI.<br />
<br />
With Heisey in line to play a part in the left field equation this season, Sappelt was a potential platoon option to spell Heisey's issues with hitting left-handed pitchers. Jocketty has indicated that addressing that platoon issue through free agency is <a href="http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111222&content_id=26224746&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin" target="_blank">still a potential objective this offseason</a>, along with potentially addressing the bullpen situation further. <br />
<br />
The speedy Torreyes was a huge contributor in high-A Dayton last season, hitting .356 with a .457 slugging percentage in a relatively small sample. He converted his 99 hits in for 41 runs batted in and showed tremendous plate discipline for a 19-year-old with a 6.2% strikeout ratio. While he may maintain above average batting averages on balls in play from his speed, his limited frame and tendency to hit singles may not have fit the mold for the Reds plans going forward. His inclusion bolsters the Cubs depth at that position, but shouldn't be a huge detriment for the Reds - especially if they extend Brandon Phillips and hold onto coveted prospect <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa500815&position=SS" target="_blank">Billy Hamilton,</a> who duplicates many of Torreyes' tools. <br />
<br />
As it stands, Jocketty has effectively added one of the better young pitchers in the National League (Latos) and arguably its best left-handed reliever (Marshall) without taking on any net difference in team payroll. The expense was a large part of the nucleus of the Reds' premium prospect base, albeit at positions of depth. If the Reds intend to convert flamethrower <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10233&position=P" target="_blank">Aroldis Chapman</a> to a starter as they've indicated, that means that Sam LeCure is now arguably the club's best option for a spot start until Chapman stretches his innings out, likely in AAA.<br />
<br />
Buckle up for 2012.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6256811467438832105.post-47230041000811563442011-12-20T14:53:00.025-05:002012-02-19T14:30:10.951-05:00Welcome Mat Latos<div class="MsoNormal"><div style="text-align: right;"></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik1Z4o8jNVaUOuZ0DQkPOLuxB9LvIaUtOqGFXWCVDG28EeEZLWpC_d4HsiXpnj4p7VlMFZPCYB_Ne6N79T8dVhcdXLGGU9Nfs8u23JFV6v4CRtA5rCC8np7882ZG6IBrCY2Hnuo1jIaxI/s1600/MLatos.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik1Z4o8jNVaUOuZ0DQkPOLuxB9LvIaUtOqGFXWCVDG28EeEZLWpC_d4HsiXpnj4p7VlMFZPCYB_Ne6N79T8dVhcdXLGGU9Nfs8u23JFV6v4CRtA5rCC8np7882ZG6IBrCY2Hnuo1jIaxI/s320/MLatos.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">24-year-old Mat Latos boasts a <br />
career 3.37 ERA</td></tr>
</tbody></table>It seems an appropriate time to launch a labor-of-love blog largely about the Cincinnati Reds on the heels of their largest team deal in the Walt Jocketty era. Sorry Scott – we all love you – but Saturday’s trade for San Diego righty <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3815&position=P" target="_blank">Mat Latos</a> had the number of pieces flying around that signature trades are made of, for better or worse. The move gives the Redlegs a healthy one-two punch of Cueto-Latos at the top of their pitching rotation in 2012 while the club affordably maintains team control of the young pitcher for the next four years.<br />
<br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">The trade is one that has polarized a lot of opinions of Reds fans and baseball analysts alike due to the high cost of bringing Mat to Cincinnati. The Reds sent highly-touted prospects <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2530&position=1B/OF" target="_blank">Yonder Alonso</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa392198&position=C" target="_blank">Yasmani Grandal</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa328086&position=P" target="_blank">Brad Boxberger</a> and pitcher <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3990&position=P" target="_blank">Edinson Volquez</a> to San Diego, effectively signifying that the Reds first priority is to make a run at it during Joey Votto’s final contract years. There’s no question that top of the rotation pitching was a need for the Reds this offseason and after being involved in rumors with James Shield, Jair Jurrjens and Gio Gonzalez, they finally had a deal they could pull the trigger on.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">In addition to filling out a spot in the rotation going into 2012, Mat Latos comes with four years of team control and the move saved the Reds a few million dollars to potentially play in free agency with. But as is always the question with such a trade, you have to wonder who won. And the answer is, well, that it’s hard to answer. But I’ll try to add some context to the deal.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">Cost-Benefit Analysis</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">I want to go on record saying that in four years, or perhaps even sooner, the Padres are going to be able to look at this trade on paper and make the argument that they got the better value in the end. Alonso’s burst onto the scene in late 2011 backed up a stellar minor league resume that had the young first basemen ranked as the club’s third best prospect by Baseball America. The loss of catcher Yasmani Grandal, the fourth-ranked prospect, was another shot to the depth of the current farm system. That said anyone who has been following the swirling speculation around the Reds' desire to trade for a top of the rotation arm had to just about see the writing on the wall for those two prospects if such a deal was going to be struck.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqu8_vQbrGFnQ6YjxEQ7qPjoLERchzGRra2qoWzZ8LmzZxZBPZ-Ysssr6mHfH5yIHdJWKUXtjSnR06hexod2DhevxJF1wNUoSIxJTpwECzutHKyzx9mxAHUdpuSA47pkleXu4-16PGpfM/s1600/Joey%252BVotto%252BYonder%252BAlonso%252BPhiladelphia%252BPhillies%252BtaAktbgEqcol.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqu8_vQbrGFnQ6YjxEQ7qPjoLERchzGRra2qoWzZ8LmzZxZBPZ-Ysssr6mHfH5yIHdJWKUXtjSnR06hexod2DhevxJF1wNUoSIxJTpwECzutHKyzx9mxAHUdpuSA47pkleXu4-16PGpfM/s320/Joey%252BVotto%252BYonder%252BAlonso%252BPhiladelphia%252BPhillies%252BtaAktbgEqcol.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Prospect Yonder Alonso is among the four <br />
Reds heading to San Diego.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>With former-MVP Joey Votto anchoring the Reds at first through 2013 and top prospect Devin Mesoroco projected to play a prominent role in the Reds 2012 catching battery, both Grandal and Alonso were blocked from contributing significantly for the next few seasons. While the club kicked the tires on Alonso in left field, you never quite got the feeling that they were comfortable with him there full time due to his less than premium defense. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Also headed to San Diego are reliever Brad Boxberger and the enigmatic Edinson Volquez. Boxberger was really starting to come into his own in the minors last year and seemed destined to make the Reds bullpen sooner than later. Of all the pieces involved in this trade, Brad was perhaps the most unexpected. But, Reds GM Walt Jocketty said shortly after the trade that he didn’t <a href="http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20111217/SPT04/312170077/Reds-get-Latos-steep-cost" target="_blank">“think we would have been able to make the deal”</a> without him. At the end of the day, it’s hard to get too hung up on trading away a reliever for a power pitching potential ace along with surplus pieces to the organization.<br />
<br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Reds nation basically ran completely out of patience of the 28-year old Volquez after his Opening Day nod last season. After being acquired through the infamous Josh Hamilton trade, Volquez had a stellar debut for the 2008 Reds posting a 3.21 ERA and a 17-6 record along with a trip to the 2008 All-Star game. It’s safe to say that as far as the Reds are concerned, Edinson peaked early. Following a PED indictment, Tommy John surgery and a 2011 campaign that saw him demoted to AAA Louisville not once, but twice, a change of scenery will probably do well for both the Reds and Volquez alike, who stands to benefit from the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">The return for the Redlegs is a 24 year old pitcher with potential one or two in the rotation stuff. Latos has four pitches in his arsenal with a low-to-mid-90’s fastball and career 3.37 ERA. After a stellar 2010 that saw the right hander go 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, Latos had consistency issues in the first half of 2011 and had lost a few miles per hour from his velocity going 5-10 through his first 17 games with shoulder issues. But he seemed to have really found his groove after the Midsummer Classic, posting a 2.87 ERA through the final fourteen games and pushing his strikeout-to-walk ratio to nearly 4. He had a WHIP ratio of 1.00 and nearly averaged one strikeout for every inning pitched.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">The Smallpark Beckons</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB0qwNwE-6yZwo_d8Ksc_S7tfg7YtuM8axxbYho2aKF09BnuR2l9v3upxSnzu-dgetCQC2xa1XkPhxXKkyr60C43W5eBcwfKVOcsRfFJc_KfGA9Kg5ptOhRYgNhqtrCfMa860gIEye9U8/s1600/great-american-ballpark.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB0qwNwE-6yZwo_d8Ksc_S7tfg7YtuM8axxbYho2aKF09BnuR2l9v3upxSnzu-dgetCQC2xa1XkPhxXKkyr60C43W5eBcwfKVOcsRfFJc_KfGA9Kg5ptOhRYgNhqtrCfMa860gIEye9U8/s200/great-american-ballpark.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>There is usually a deserved guard that goes up when conversations around San Diego’s pitching come up. Indeed Petco Park is arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball, despite it being edged out by Tropicana Field and AT&T Park in MLB park ratings. Even casual Reds fans are fairly well-aware that the opposite is true in Cincinnati. Great American has been called a “bandbox” and is endearingly referred to as “Great American Smallpark” by Cincinnatians with good taste. While pitching in Petco is worlds away from pitching at Great American, there is plenty of evidence that Latos is well-equipped to overcome the change in ballpark dimensions. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">It is worth noting that Latos’ peripherals have been better at home than they have on the road in his career… but barely. Last season, Latos had a 3.24 ERA and a 3.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the confines of Petco, while going 3.68 with a 2.61 SO/BB on the road. Over his three year career, he’s managed a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3815&position=P&season=0" target="_blank">3.11 ERA in San Diego and a 3.57 mark on the road</a>. There is discrepancy there, some of which can certainly be written off to Petco. But his peripherals indicate that Mat Latos could manage just fine in another ballpark.<br />
<br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Latos’ fielding independent pitching number is 3.28 over his career and he is in a position to maintain a continually low batting average on balls in play due to Cincinnati’s stellar defense. The home-away splits are not drastically out of line with what you would expect any home-away split to be, ballpark dimensions aside. His peripherals were virtually consistent whatever venue he was playing in. In fact, his homerun total in his career is almost inexplicably higher at Petco than it has been on the road. It is also worth noting that he has pitched almost 60 more innings on the road than at home in his career.<br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">In his career, Mat has given up about .8 homeruns per nine innings pitched. This number isn’t staggering or particularly exceptional by any means, but it thankfully isn’t Bronson Arroyo territory either. Last year, Latos struck out over 8.5 batters per nine innings and walked an average of three per nine. He posted a groundball percentage of 43% and though he is also a bit of a fly ball pitcher at times, his strong strikeout numbers should keep him balanced enough to overcome the new park. Last year, despite a rougher first half, he had a better groundball to flyball ratio than Clayton Kershaw. Splits aside, even looking at the "away" statistics for SO/BB (2.61) and ERA (3.68), Mat's numbers are both better than Cueto's career averages, who stands to continue to improve as well.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
At a great cost, the Reds have certainly upgraded their rotation with this move and Latos could easily project to be a 4 – 4.5 WAR arm and 15 or 16 game winner in Cincinnati should the Reds bounce back as a team from a disappointing effort in 2011.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">Some Final Thoughts</span></b></div><ul><li>Yonder Alonso on paper didn’t seem like a great fit for the Padres who acquired 22-year-old first base prospect <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B" target="_blank">Anthony Rizzo</a> when the team moved Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. Rizzo hit .331 with 26 homers and 101 RBIs in AAA before hitting .141 in San Diego towards the end of the last season. Rizzo struck out 46 times, but only has a 128 at-bat sample. With Yonder not being a good fit for Cincinnati’s left field, it’s hard to imagine him ending up in Petco’s large outfield corners. Expect the Padres to trade one of the two pieces with teams like Chicago, Toronto and Tampa in need of a long-term answer at first.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> <br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> </li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"></span>Edinson Volquez is a pitcher who stands to greatly benefit from his move to San Diego. Volquez achieved a hard to achieve feat last year posting a homerun to fly ball ratio north of 20%. Assuming he can continue to improve on his walks another year removed from Tommy John, the larger dimensions of Petco should substantially contribute to keeping more balls in the yard. With a hole in their rotation now, don’t expect the drop-off from Latos to Volquez to necessarily be as significant as it may seem. That said, the Padres have much, much larger issues that would likely have limited Latos’ value next season as well.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> <br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> </li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"></span>To me, this is a classic quantity-for-quality win-win trade and I expect both teams to get good value out of it. With the rest of the NL Central in a bit of a transition, the time has never been better for the Reds to deal from surplus to open a window. If they can do well over Votto’s final two seasons (and Latos should help), we can only hope team revenue and attendance will increase to continue a competitive run for the second half of Mat’s four years of team control.</li>
</ul>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0