Spring Has Sprung
The Cincinnati Reds pitchers and catchers have reported to Arizona and the extended baseball season is officially upon us. On the heels of the team's first division title in over a decade in 2010, the Reds contended with injuries and underproduction in 2011, limping to a sub-.500 record and a third place finish in the division. Following an aggressive offseason and some significant power shifts in the rest of the NL Central, the start of Spring Training this year is surrounded by renewed optimism and a few new faces.
Last season, the Reds went to Goodyear feeling particularly good about their starting pitching depth. After injuries to Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, a case of mononucleosis for Bronson Arroyo, and a case of continued unmet potential for the since traded Edinson Volquez, that song quickly became the lullaby that largely put the team's 2011 hopes to bed early. After the busy offseason, the club hopes to have provided depth to not only their rotation, but the larger 25 man roster. It's still early to predict the Opening Day lineup with total certainty in February, but with pitchers and catchers reporting, it seemed like an opportune moment to take preliminary look at your new look Reds pitching staff.
The Rotation
After missing the start of the season with injury, Johnny Cueto was a terrific bright spot for the Reds in his 24 starts last year. Cueto added an extra hitch to a Luis Tiant-like delivery and traded in his marginally higher career strikeout ratio for more groundball inducing strikes, improving his efficiency with the Reds elite defense behind him. Cueto finished the season with a 2.31 ERA and 3.45 FIP, but the .249 batting average on balls hit in play against him will be extremely difficult to replicate, in spite of the Reds defense. Still, in a staff that clearly needed a potential ace to emerge, Cueto took a huge step forward in 2011. A position on top of the rotation will put increased pressure on Johnny's durability and he will need to make more than 24 starts to really set the team over the top in key pitching matchups throughout the season.Beyond Cueto, the Reds needed another bona fide option at the top of their pitching rotation to take the next step as a club. Given the club's payroll limitation, the solution needed to be team controlled, affordable and acquirable through a trade. Enter Mat Latos. In the team's largest deal of the offseason, the Reds parted with several highly touted prospects to land the 24-year old righty from San Diego. A 2.92 ERA pitching, 14 game winning strikeout machine in 2010, Latos had a shaky start to 2011 before drastically improving throughout the year and finishing with a 1.96 ERA through five starts in September. While he is making the transition from pitcher-friendly San Diego to bandbox-resembling Great American Ballpark, Latos is well-fit to make the transition and gives the Reds top of the rotation pitching depth that they simply haven't had in several years.
The order of the rest of the rotation is arguably a little more difficult to predict. Bronson Arroyo apparently contended with the effects of mono for most of the 2011 season and posted his worst ERA since 2001 at 5.07. He still managed to give the Reds around 200 innings, but surrendered a soul-crushing 46 homeruns - more than two per nine innings pitched. Reds fans should take solace in the fact that the 2011 Bad Bronson epidemic was arguably the worst in his career and a performance he probably won't repeat. If the lingering effects of mono kept him from performing up to his career numbers last season, 2012 should (hopefully) be a little easier on the usually reliable veteran. The size of his contract pretty much guarantees that he will likely remain a starter somewhere on the team, but his production and recovery will likely dictate where and to what extent.
Mike Leake had a bumpy sophomore start out of the gate last year with a 5.06 ERA through May and a shoplifting charge in April. He also spent some time in AAA Louisville for the first time in his career, from May 14th to May 28th. After shaking off the start, he became one of the most productive starters for the team, posting a 3.45 ERA for the remainder of the season. Leake won 12 games and regularly worked five different pitches into his delivery, averaging a respectable 6.33 strikeouts per nine innings and a Great-American-favorable groundball rate near 50%. Leake finished the season with a 2.74 ERA in three September starts and will play a considerable role in the middle of the 2012 rotation.
Homer Bailey enters his sixth season now, and Reds fans everywhere are still waiting for him to have "the year" that he puts it all together. In 22 starts in 2011, Homer won nine games and was one of the only Reds pitchers to have an ERA (4.43) worse than his FIP (4.06). He had two different DL stints with shoulder tendinitis and his durability remains the biggest obstacle to a truly productive full season, much as it has for his whole career. With the departure of Travis Wood, Homer will almost certainly play into the back of the rotation plan. With terrific stuff and moments of brilliance, it's tough to say what the Reds really have in the once "can't miss prospect" given some of Bailey's issues with consistency. With other potential options waiting in the wings and the likely reality that Bailey will spend at least some time on the DL, it will be interesting to see if his role changes throughout the course of the season.
Wildcards
The Reds still have some depth in the minors that will likely be thrown into the mix at some point this season. The most intriguing option is Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. Chapman had an up and down, mostly good campaign in 2011. At one point, he gave up over eight runs and retired just one opposing batter through three games out of the bullpen. After being placed on the DL for issues with his shoulder, he returned to strike out 56 batters in 37 innings with a 2.43 ERA. The Reds have begun to transition Chapman from the bullpen back into the rotation, and after missing Winter Ball with injury, he will likely get his first starts in Spring Training this year. While he will probably begin the season in AAA, he may get the call at one point or another based on his own production or injuries to one of the starters.
Other suitors for some major league exposure are veteran Jeff Francis and super-veteran Brett Tomko who both enter on minor league deals. Francis was a 17 game winner for Colorado in 2007 before injuries derailed his production in 2008 and 2009. Last season, he posted a 4.82 ERA and 6-16 record for the Royals over 31 starts. Tomko debuted with the Reds in 1997 and was one of the players dealt to bring Ken Griffey Jr. to Cincinnati in 2000. With a career 5.99 ERA, his addition was a depth signing and at least provides the Reds with a seasoned professional who could likely be relied on for an occasional emergency start, as needed.
In general, the Reds once again have starting pitching depth on paper to start Spring Training. It's always difficult to say exactly who will play where in a Dusty Baker rotation. Beyond preference in splitting up lefties and righties, Dusty has an acknowledged belief in separating pitchers who have similar deliveries or tendencies. This is worth noting, particularly with two finesse pitchers like Arroyo and Leake both seemingly best fit for a spot in the middle of the order. Hopefully this depth on paper won't be put to the test to quite the same extent as 2011.
The order of the rest of the rotation is arguably a little more difficult to predict. Bronson Arroyo apparently contended with the effects of mono for most of the 2011 season and posted his worst ERA since 2001 at 5.07. He still managed to give the Reds around 200 innings, but surrendered a soul-crushing 46 homeruns - more than two per nine innings pitched. Reds fans should take solace in the fact that the 2011 Bad Bronson epidemic was arguably the worst in his career and a performance he probably won't repeat. If the lingering effects of mono kept him from performing up to his career numbers last season, 2012 should (hopefully) be a little easier on the usually reliable veteran. The size of his contract pretty much guarantees that he will likely remain a starter somewhere on the team, but his production and recovery will likely dictate where and to what extent.
Mike Leake had a bumpy sophomore start out of the gate last year with a 5.06 ERA through May and a shoplifting charge in April. He also spent some time in AAA Louisville for the first time in his career, from May 14th to May 28th. After shaking off the start, he became one of the most productive starters for the team, posting a 3.45 ERA for the remainder of the season. Leake won 12 games and regularly worked five different pitches into his delivery, averaging a respectable 6.33 strikeouts per nine innings and a Great-American-favorable groundball rate near 50%. Leake finished the season with a 2.74 ERA in three September starts and will play a considerable role in the middle of the 2012 rotation.
Homer Bailey enters his sixth season now, and Reds fans everywhere are still waiting for him to have "the year" that he puts it all together. In 22 starts in 2011, Homer won nine games and was one of the only Reds pitchers to have an ERA (4.43) worse than his FIP (4.06). He had two different DL stints with shoulder tendinitis and his durability remains the biggest obstacle to a truly productive full season, much as it has for his whole career. With the departure of Travis Wood, Homer will almost certainly play into the back of the rotation plan. With terrific stuff and moments of brilliance, it's tough to say what the Reds really have in the once "can't miss prospect" given some of Bailey's issues with consistency. With other potential options waiting in the wings and the likely reality that Bailey will spend at least some time on the DL, it will be interesting to see if his role changes throughout the course of the season.
Wildcards
The Reds still have some depth in the minors that will likely be thrown into the mix at some point this season. The most intriguing option is Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. Chapman had an up and down, mostly good campaign in 2011. At one point, he gave up over eight runs and retired just one opposing batter through three games out of the bullpen. After being placed on the DL for issues with his shoulder, he returned to strike out 56 batters in 37 innings with a 2.43 ERA. The Reds have begun to transition Chapman from the bullpen back into the rotation, and after missing Winter Ball with injury, he will likely get his first starts in Spring Training this year. While he will probably begin the season in AAA, he may get the call at one point or another based on his own production or injuries to one of the starters.
Other suitors for some major league exposure are veteran Jeff Francis and super-veteran Brett Tomko who both enter on minor league deals. Francis was a 17 game winner for Colorado in 2007 before injuries derailed his production in 2008 and 2009. Last season, he posted a 4.82 ERA and 6-16 record for the Royals over 31 starts. Tomko debuted with the Reds in 1997 and was one of the players dealt to bring Ken Griffey Jr. to Cincinnati in 2000. With a career 5.99 ERA, his addition was a depth signing and at least provides the Reds with a seasoned professional who could likely be relied on for an occasional emergency start, as needed.
In general, the Reds once again have starting pitching depth on paper to start Spring Training. It's always difficult to say exactly who will play where in a Dusty Baker rotation. Beyond preference in splitting up lefties and righties, Dusty has an acknowledged belief in separating pitchers who have similar deliveries or tendencies. This is worth noting, particularly with two finesse pitchers like Arroyo and Leake both seemingly best fit for a spot in the middle of the order. Hopefully this depth on paper won't be put to the test to quite the same extent as 2011.
