Out Goes Wood, In Comes Marshall

Sean Marshall has lead all major-league
relievers in WAR with 5.0 since 2010

Well, I apparently picked a good week to start this little love affair of a blog. On the heels of this weekend's acquisition of Mat Latos, the Cincinnati Reds have agreed to a trade with the Chicago Cubs that will send Travis Wood and prospects Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes to Wrigley in exchange for lefty reliever Sean Marshall.

Marshall has, in terms of wins above replacement, been the single most valuable reliever in baseball over the last two years, averaging 2.5 WAR each season - a pretty staggering statistic for someone used primarily as a setup man. The 29-year-old, once-starter has spent his entire career with the Cubs to this point. After fully converting to a reliever in 2010, he broke out as one of the best relief talents in the National League. Over 150 innings, he has posted a 2.45 ERA. In that time, he has given up 22 doubles, one triple and just four homeruns. In 75 innings last year, he gave up just one homerun and 19 earned runs while facing 307 opposing batters and striking 79 of them out.

Travis Wood came on the scene in 2010 and had an impressive rookie campaign for the Reds, going 5-4 in 17 starts with a 3.51 ERA. Interestingly, he made his debut against the very club he is now about to play for, holding the Cubs to two hits and two runs. In just his third big-league start, Wood came within three outs of throwing the second perfect game in Reds history, but instead ended up with a no-decision in an eventual 1-0 loss to the Phillies. His sophomore season wasn't quite as rosy, with Wood going 6-6 in 18 starts with a 4.84 ERA. He spent time in AAA Louisville, pitching ten games and going 2-3 with a 5.33 ERA. Still, the young southpaw has displayed moments of brilliance in his short career and stands to be at worst a solid back of the rotation solution for the Cubs going forward.

In these deals, however, there is always a rub in projecting value. This time around, it all has to do with contract length. Marshall is going into his contract year and stands to be a free agent in 2013. With the Reds' payroll constraints and the money Marshall will be able to command as a premium reliever, it may be difficult to extend him beyond this season. Wood, on the other hand, is under team control through 2016. With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, Cincinnati won't even get a compensation pick for Marshall should he choose to walk after his contract is up unless the trade makes an outrageous arbitration offer. If the Latos trade polarized the Reds fan base, this one has truly left Cincinnati fans as a house divided because of these disparities.

Facing Facts

There's no question that this is a shorter-term move for the Reds, further signifying the "all in" mentality I mentioned in the earlier post about Mat Latos' arrival. It's entirely debatable whether it was the right move and, as is always the case in baseball, 162 games will sort out right from wrong. That said, for all Wood's potential, he wouldn't have the same opportunity to succeed with Cincinnati that he will elsewhere. While the same was true about Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal by virtue of being blocked at their positions, Travis may not have been a good fit for reasons beyond that.

Great American Ballpark is a hitter's park that by its nature is particularly unforgiving to flyball pitchers like Travis Wood. In 106 innings last season, Wood had a low groundball rate of 32.1% and while he put away a respectable 6.5 batters with strikeouts per nine innings, his sub .65 flyout to groundball ratio doesn't project well for the small confines of Great American Ballpark. His home and away splits support this reality, with Wood posting a 5.86 ERA at home last year, almost a full two points above his 3.90 ERA on the road in a similar sample of innings pitched. While he gave up a similar number of hits at home (60) and away (58) in 2011, he gave up four times as many homeruns in Great American as he did on the road, in part resulting in 33 earned runs versus 24 in other ballparks. With Latos' arrival, he was simply the sixth man in a five-man ' rotation and the team moved him for Marshall who should contribute to a larger extent in 2012.

The addition of a reliever of Marshall's caliber and the ongoing vacancy for the Reds closer role begs the question of whether the club would consider him for that spot or not. While it is certainly a possibility based on his FIP and while bullpen roles are often subject to change over the course of a year (see Saint Louis Cardinals, 2011 World Champions), I think Marshall will primarily serve as a setup man for the Reds. While you have to take sample sizes with a grain of salt, here are the numbers of opposing batters against him last year, with plate appearances in parentheses:

• Seventh inning:  .198/.244/.247 (59 PA)
• Eighth inning:  .220/.259/.265 (140 PA)
• Ninth inning:  .340/.375/.396 (87 PA)

I won't get into baseball's eternal debate about whether any good reliever can perform well closing games and pitching in the ninth inning. For all intents and purposes, though, some pitchers are just plain better suited for certain roles. And in a setup role for the last two years, Sean Marshall has empirically been one of the best relievers in baseball.

What Still Might Be Cooking

Since you could almost argue for or against a one-for-one trade for Wood and Marshall based on Chicago's desire to start rebuilding, the inclusion of minor leaguers Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes might signify that the Reds hope to extend Marshall beyond 2012, if possible. He is due $3.1 million in 2012 which is expensive in terms of replacement relief talent, but still more than reasonable for his abilities. The team may have wanted to secure team control for a potential extension during the season before the talented Marshall would hit free agency, where bidding might be competitive.

Dave Sappelt hit .564 in Spring
Training for the Reds last season

Sappelt had a monster line at Spring Training last season, hitting .564 in 38 at-bats with three homeruns and 12 RBI. He spent most of the season in Louisville playing center field and hitting .313 with seven homeruns and a .358 average against lefties. He was called up to the Reds in early August after Chris Heisey injured his oblique and appeared in just under 40 games, going .243 with only 5 RBI.

With Heisey in line to play a part in the left field equation this season, Sappelt was a potential platoon option to spell Heisey's issues with hitting left-handed pitchers. Jocketty has indicated that addressing that platoon issue through free agency is still a potential objective this offseason, along with potentially addressing the bullpen situation further.

The speedy Torreyes was a huge contributor in high-A Dayton last season, hitting .356 with a .457 slugging percentage in a relatively small sample. He converted his 99 hits in for 41 runs batted in and showed tremendous plate discipline for a 19-year-old with a 6.2% strikeout ratio. While he may maintain above average batting averages on balls in play from his speed, his limited frame and tendency to hit singles may not have fit the mold for the Reds plans going forward. His inclusion bolsters the Cubs depth at that position, but shouldn't be a huge detriment for the Reds - especially if they extend Brandon Phillips and hold onto coveted prospect Billy Hamilton, who duplicates many of Torreyes' tools.

As it stands, Jocketty has effectively added one of the better young pitchers in the National League (Latos) and arguably its best left-handed reliever (Marshall) without taking on any net difference in team payroll. The expense was a large part of the nucleus of the Reds' premium prospect base, albeit at positions of depth. If the Reds intend to convert flamethrower Aroldis Chapman to a starter as they've indicated, that means that Sam LeCure is now arguably the club's best option for a spot start until Chapman stretches his innings out, likely in AAA.

Buckle up for 2012.