The Outfielders
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| Chris Heisey stands to play a large role in the left field platoon |
It's generally good practice in the National League to carry a second catcher, second third baseman and reserve utility infielder into the season with you. Without compromising pitching depth, it's tough to have room for more than a fourth outfielder.
Bringing in Willie Harris was a great depth move by Reds GM Walt Jocketty this offseason, but his toolset (and contract terms by comparison) probably won't be enough to upend also acquired Ryan Ludwick for the fourth outfield spot. Harris will likely see some time with the Major League club at some point or another in the case of injury, but with a minor league deal he will mostly provide organizational security from AAA Louisville and be called on when needed in the outfield.
Harris is a career .240 hitter and doesn't bring much power to the table. He hit .246 with a .668 OPS for the Mets last year in 283 plate appearances. With good plate discipline, he draws a lot of walks which have helped keep his on-base percentage above .340 for the last five years. Even though he will mostly factor into the outfield depth situation, it's worth noting that he is also a capable infielder in a pinch. While Harris was similarly... we'll say "serviceable" to Ludwick on a per at-bat basis last season, he's coming off several seasons in a fairly limited role and a comparable minor league deal with the Mets in 2011.
As I discussed earlier this year upon Ludwick's arrival, he may stand to greatly improve his numbers spending most of his time in Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati's 133 ballpark homerun factor for righties is almost tailor made for Ludwick's tendencies. In the 30 games he's played there in his career, Ludwick has hit nine homeruns, powered 21 runs in, managed a .276 batting average and posted a .921 on-base-plus-slugging. In a lot of ways, though, it's unfair to call the Reds' fourth outfielder a utility contributor, especially when he's a veteran on a Dusty Baker team. When all is said and done, Ryan Ludwick may tip the playing time balance away from Chris Heisey in left field by season's end, for better or worse, based mostly on his veteran status. With both left fielders struggling in Goodyear so far - Heisey has hit .130 with 11 strikeouts while Ludwick has hit .190 with 7 K's - it's hard to make that prediction with total conviction this early on.
“Obviously if one of us is hot, we’ll stick with that guy for a while.” Heisey said about he and Ludwick in left, adding that, "Right now, I don’t think one of us is going to get buried on the bench unless one of us is really struggling.”
The Infielders
Paul Janish likely played his way out of backup shortstop consideration last year, in spite his defensive prowess. The arrival of Wilson Valdez, who can play almost any infield or outfield position and arrives without options should figure to keep Janish off the 25-man as well.
All told, this means it's probably more of a Spring Training battle between Francisco and Frazier for the right to back up superveteran Scott Rolen at third with also-veteran Miguel Cairo. With Rolen's history of injury problems this is a fairly significant role for the Reds' hopes to contend in 2012 and might represent 200-250 at-bats for the club.
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| Todd Frazier may give Juan Francisco a run for his money backing up Scott Rolen |
Frazier is a more versatile reserve player and can cover all the spots around the horn in the infield, as well as play some corner outfield. Francisco may be able to play beyond first and third, but hasn't gotten any time away from the hot corner this Spring or in most of his Major League appearances to date. In 121 plate appearances last season, Frazier hit .232 but struggled from a below-average .253 batting average on balls put in play. He hit 6 homeruns and had 15 RBIs. Francisco hit .258 in 97 plate appearances for 3 homeruns and 15 RBIs himself. He posted a higher-than-average .318 batting average on balls in play, but given his power tendencies, the free-swinging Francisco will likely always be above league average in this category. Frazier's tools are a little more diversified, so the question is whether his production and versatility combined would trump Francisco's raw power alone, especially with a BABIP more in line with league average and Frazier's body of work in the minors.
The likely trump card in this conversation, barring a trade, is that Juan Francisco is out of minor league options as well. With more power than arguably anyone in the organization, it's unlikely the Reds would be able to retain the young prospect if he was designated for assignment and made it to waivers. While Frazier's stock would probably keep him from clearing waivers in a similar circumstance, the club can still move him freely between the 25-man and 40-man active rosters for now. He's also a right-handed hitter where Francisco hits left-handed. While this may actually have been a boon for Frazier's chances to make the club out of camp a few years ago when the Reds were lefty-heavy, the 2012 club is short on left-handed bats off the bench. For that reason, Todd will probably start the year in Louisville again, patiently waiting for his number to be called.
