Joey Votto: Setting the Cornerstone

It may seem hyperbolic to call today a historic day for the rebuilding effort the Reds have been enduring since the mostly dark days of the 2000's. While you hate to jump the gun with labels like that, today's news of a long-term extension with 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto may well be the punctuation mark on what has certainly been the most aggressive off-season in recent team history. At a rumored ten years and $225 million, the deal keeps Votto under team control for the next decade and beats a midnight deadline the first basemen set with the club to resolve an extension before the season. It is the largest deal in Cincinnati sports history, the fourth-largest in MLB history and the largest contract for a non-free agent ever.

There's no question that Joey Votto got paid like most All-Star first basemen this off-season. With a baseball-leading .363 batting average with runners in scoring position over the last three seasons, he was bound to be. There's probably also no question that the Reds would have been outbid had he hit free agency at the conclusion of his previous contract in 2013.

Earlier this Spring, Votto commented on Pujols' move to Los Angeles to Fox's Jon Morosi, remarking "I think Albert might find — not that I know — that St. Louis might have been a good market as far as him being a star." He later added that if he was elected into the Hall of Fame, Votto would like to be next to "The other Reds players [like] Bench and Morgan." With an extension that will keep him in red and white until 2023, he may well have that opportunity now.

Not So "All In" All of a Sudden

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are about
to spend a lot of time together.

There are obviously implications to be determined by the specific year-by-year breakouts of the extension, but with any deal in that neighborhood, the Reds are committing about a quarter of their payroll for the forseeable future to make it happen. It's a tremendous commitment for a smaller market team like Cincinnati, but there's some immediate things to consider beyond Joey's on-field contributions alone (though most of them are entirely dependent on them).

The news of a Votto extension is staggering on its own, but it's important to think about this deal in the context of the team's last two years. In 2010, the Reds extended Jay Bruce with an Evan Longoria-esque, team-friendly contract extension for six years. Coupled with the four-year extension of Cueto and acquisition of Mat Latos with team control through 2015, Walt Jocketty has taken a two-year "All In" window and blown it wide open.

Complimentary pieces like starter Mike Leake, reliever Sean Marshall and current-reliever-maybe-someday-starter Aroldis Chapman are also controlled comfortably for the next few years. Other regular contributors like Zach Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are all under extended team control and haven't even hit arbitration yet. In terms of the prospects lost in the Mat Latos trade earlier this off-season, the pieces lost are looking more and more redundant with the extension of Votto by virtue of their positions.

The potentially negative implication is that the team may now lose the payroll flexiblity to extend Brandon Phillips for the multiple years he is likely hoping for. When asked by Cincinnati's John Fay about this own ongoing contract negotiations and the Votto deal after it surfaced, Phillips replied briefly with, "I just want to play baseball." The Reds and Phillips' agent were reportedly on good terms earlier in the off-season, but it goes without saying that financial circumstances are very different now. 

How The Reds Will Pay for It  

The $225-million question for the Reds is how they'll front the bill for Votto's services. The shock around baseball was Cincinnati's ability to pull the trigger on such a large financial commitment and the risks associated with it. There are a few components to consider in that equation, beyond merely paying the market value at first base set by Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder earlier this winter.

First and foremost, the Reds are continuing to try to generate fan interest after the aforementioned Dark Period prior to Jocketty's arrival. Over the last three seasons, the Reds have built attendance from a meager 21,500 per game in 2009; to 25,400 in 2010; and 27,300 in 2011. This may seem like small potatoes to teams with near or complete sellouts virtually every game of the year, and in a lot of ways it is. The Reds are fairly consistently in the middle to back of the pack in attendance numbers and have been since the early 90's. Still, the trend is swinging in the right direction and another playoff run or two may push home attendance over that elusive 2,500,000 fan mark on the year. The aggressive moves this off-season should hopefully contribute to increased attention around Cincinnati and keep moving the needle on ticket and merchandise sales.

Perhaps the more important consideration, though, is the restructuring of the team's current TV contract, which expires in 2016. While it's difficult to foresee exactly what that financial contribution will be, the last deal was signed when interest in the team was waning in 2008. As it stands, the team only makes $10 million a year, which is grossly out of line with some other recent TV deals, even in semi-comparable market sizes. This likely boon in money will come towards the middle part of Votto's contract and provide the team with some added flexibility.

As is always the case, you try to maximize the opportunities to win in baseball for as long as you possibly can. When other deals come to bear in the latter parts of the Joey Votto contract, opinion around the financial commitment made to him may change. Without question, the Reds have taken on a risk with the 28-year-old Votto, hitching themselves to the first basemen with a contract that takes him even beyond Albert Pujols' playing commitments to the Angels. The team is gambling that the fans will take notice and show up. Joey Votto will try to help the cause

Utilizing the Utility Guys

It's less than three short weeks until the Reds begin their pursuit of another winning season. While the roster has begun to optimistically take shape for 2012, several minor questions are still being worked out in Arizona, including which utility players will round out the Opening Day 25-man roster. While you could perhaps argue that its a five-man battle for two roster spots between Willie Harris, Wilson Valdez, Paul Janish, Juan Francisco and Todd Frazier, its more realistically a battle of two players for one spot, if anything.

The Outfielders

Chris Heisey stands to play a
large role in the left field platoon

It's generally good practice in the National League to carry a second catcher, second third baseman and reserve utility infielder into the season with you. Without compromising pitching depth, it's tough to have room for more than a fourth outfielder.

Bringing in Willie Harris was a great depth move by Reds GM Walt Jocketty this offseason,  but his toolset (and contract terms by comparison) probably won't be enough to upend also acquired Ryan Ludwick for the fourth outfield spot. Harris will likely see some time with the Major League club at some point or another in the case of injury, but with a minor league deal he will mostly provide organizational security from AAA Louisville and be called on when needed in the outfield.

Harris is a career .240 hitter and doesn't bring much power to the table. He hit .246 with a .668 OPS for the Mets last year in 283 plate appearances. With good plate discipline, he draws a lot of walks which have helped keep his on-base percentage above .340 for the last five years. Even though he will mostly factor into the outfield depth situation, it's worth noting that he is also a capable infielder in a pinch. While Harris was similarly... we'll say "serviceable" to Ludwick on a per at-bat basis last season, he's coming off several seasons in a fairly limited role and a comparable minor league deal with the Mets in 2011.

As I discussed earlier this year upon Ludwick's arrival, he may stand to greatly improve his numbers spending most of his time in Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati's 133 ballpark homerun factor for righties is almost tailor made for Ludwick's tendencies. In the 30 games he's played there in his career, Ludwick has hit nine homeruns, powered 21 runs in, managed a .276 batting average and posted a .921 on-base-plus-slugging. In a lot of ways, though, it's unfair to call the Reds' fourth outfielder a utility contributor, especially when he's a veteran on a Dusty Baker team. When all is said and done, Ryan Ludwick may tip the playing time balance away from Chris Heisey in left field by season's end, for better or worse, based mostly on his veteran status. With both left fielders struggling in Goodyear so far - Heisey has hit .130 with 11 strikeouts while Ludwick has hit .190 with 7 K's - it's hard to make that prediction with total conviction this early on.

“Obviously if one of us is hot, we’ll stick with that guy for a while.” Heisey said about he and Ludwick in left, adding that, "Right now, I don’t think one of us is going to get buried on the bench unless one of us is really struggling.”

The Infielders

Paul Janish likely played his way out of backup shortstop consideration last year, in spite his defensive prowess. The arrival of Wilson Valdez, who can play almost any infield or outfield position and arrives without options should figure to keep Janish off the 25-man as well.

All told, this means it's probably more of a Spring Training battle between Francisco and Frazier for the right to back up superveteran Scott Rolen at third with also-veteran Miguel Cairo. With Rolen's history of injury problems this is a fairly significant role for the  Reds' hopes to contend in 2012 and might represent 200-250 at-bats for the club.

Todd Frazier may give Juan
Francisco a run for his money
backing up Scott Rolen

Francisco arrived to camp later than some of the other "on the bubble" utility players, and reportedly drew some concern from Reds management. While Francisco has performed well enough since then, Frazier earned some brownie points with the club by reporting early and has motored along with a .280 average over 25 plate appearances while leading the club in homeruns (3) and RBI (8). Spring training numbers don't necessarily matter all that much (see: since traded Dave Sappelt, 2012), but there is some potential debate between the two back-up third basemen beyond their performances in half a season in the Cactus League.

Frazier is a more versatile reserve player and can cover all the spots around the horn in the infield, as well as play some corner outfield. Francisco may be able to play beyond first and third, but hasn't gotten any time away from the hot corner this Spring or in most of his Major League appearances to date. In 121 plate appearances last season, Frazier hit .232 but struggled from a below-average .253 batting average on balls put in play. He hit 6 homeruns and had 15 RBIs. Francisco hit .258 in 97 plate appearances for 3 homeruns and 15 RBIs himself. He posted a higher-than-average .318 batting average on balls in play, but given his power tendencies, the free-swinging Francisco will likely always be above league average in this category. Frazier's tools are a little more diversified, so the question is whether his production and versatility combined would trump Francisco's raw power alone, especially with a BABIP more in line with league average and Frazier's body of work in the minors.

The likely trump card in this conversation, barring a trade, is that Juan Francisco is out of minor league options as well. With more power than arguably anyone in the organization, it's unlikely the Reds would be able to retain the young prospect if he was designated for assignment and made it to waivers. While Frazier's stock would probably keep him from clearing waivers in a similar circumstance, the club can still move him freely between the 25-man and 40-man active rosters for now. He's also a right-handed hitter where Francisco hits left-handed. While this may actually have been a boon for Frazier's chances to make the club out of camp a few years ago when the Reds were lefty-heavy, the 2012 club is short on left-handed bats off the bench. For that reason, Todd will probably start the year in Louisville again, patiently waiting for his number to be called.