Sunday, January 1, 2012

What's Left on the Farm?

The arrival of Mat Latos and Sean Marshall has improved the outlook and expectations for the 2012 Reds season, but came at the expense of some highly coveted prospects. In the trades that brought Latos and Marshall over, the Reds parted with Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Brad Boxberger, Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. Alonso and Grandal were both first round picks and ranked fourth and sixth respectively in Baseball America's 2011 top prospect list. Prior to being packaged in the Marshall trade, Torreyes projected to be on the team's 2012 list. Excluding players like Devin Mesoroco, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier who saw some fairly significant playing time in 2011, here's a look at five of the Reds' top prospects following the Latos and Marshall deals.


Billy Hamilton - Shortstop
Billy Hamilton had an astounding 103 stolen
bases for the Dayton Dragons last year.
Other than the excluded Mesoroco, Hamilton is in line to be the Reds next top prospect and figures to be in the middle infield mix as the Reds move forward in the next few years. His success will largely hinge on Hamilton's ability to improve his contact rate, allowing him to truly take advantage of his elite speed. After 610 plate appearances in 2011, Hamilton had stolen a whopping 103 bases and ended up with a steal virtually every other time he reached base. He has a strong batting average on balls in play, but had a fairly unspectacular .340 on-base percentage last year, due largely to his 133 stirkeouts - all in single A Dayton, where pitching talent hasn't yet developed to the major-league level. If Hamilton can improve his strikeout and walk numbers, he has the raw tools to make him an intriguing future leadoff option with base-running speed to burn. For now, expect him to start his 2012 season in high A to work on those peripherals.


Daniel Corcino - Pitcher (R)
Right-handed pitching prospect Daniel Corcino is arguably the top arm in the current Reds system, though he may still be several years away from contributing at the major-league level. Corcino pitched in single A during 2011, securing an 11-7 record with a 3.42 ERA. In just under 140 innings, Corcino issued a mere 34 walks, while fanning 156 batters in that time. He has a strong mid-90's fastball and works in a slider and changeup to keep opposing hitters off-balance. That said, his smaller frame (5' 11" and 165 pounds) may make his inning-eating durability a question mark in the future based on his body of work. 2011 was the first year that Corcino eclipsed the 100 inning mark and he will likely be stretched out further in high A to start the 2012 season.


Robert Stephenson - Pitcher (R)
The 18-year-old Robert Stephenson was the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft after throwing back-to-back no-hitters for his high school team. Stephenson has a mid-to-high-90's fastball that Reds scouts clocked at as high as 98 mph. With a strong curveball, Stephenson will likely work to develop his third offering in low A ball this season to improve his total command of the strike zone. With a projectable frame, his peripheral qualities and arsenal could help Stephenson advance through the minors quickly in the years to come.


DiDi Gregorius - Shortstop
A European prospect from Amsterdam, Gregorius finished 2011 with the AA Carolina Mudcats after 46 games with A+ Bakersfield, where he hit .303 with a .457 slugging percentage in 203 plate appearances. In a combined 336 at-bats, he only struck out a respectable 50 times. Improving his walk rate should improve his .324 OBP and will be an area of focus for the shortstop with the Mudcats this season. His production dropped slightly after advancing to Carolina last year, where he hit .270 in 160 plate appearances. Despite the small sample offensive splits, his glove work remained a plus asset for the young infielder at both levels of competition. Based on his production and ability to improve his overall strike zone management, he could be a candidate for AAA promotion sooner than later.


Neftali Soto - First Base
Neftali Soto lead all Reds minor-leaguers
with 31 homeruns in 2011.
With the departure of Alonso, Soto would seem to be the in-house heir apparent for Joey Votto at first base should he leave the team after his current contract expires. Originally drafted in 2007, Neftali was a slow riser through the Reds minor league system, but displayed marked improvements to his numbers over the last two seasons. Soto has greatly improved his power potential, and had 31 homeruns in two levels of competition last year, where he powered in 80 runs in 396 at-bats. He has room to improve his walk and strikeout numbers, drawing 23 and 98 respectively in 432 plate appearances last season. Soto is not a particularly outstanding defender, but has seemingly found a home at first which could contribute to a sense of consistency for improvement. While there are holes to improve in his lunging swing, Soto will begin the year in AAA and may be in the mix to contribute to the major league club should team injury or his own production prompt a move. 

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