Rounding Out the Outfield

The Reds have signed veteran outfielder Ryan Ludwick to their 2012 efforts with a $2.5 million contract and a nominal mutual option for 2013. The contract has up to $500,000 in performance incentives and affordably adds much-needed depth to the Reds outfield. Ludwick can play either corner outfield spot, giving the Reds the flexibility to slide Chris Heisey to center to spell Drew Stubbs when needed without compromising depth behind Jay Bruce. With less severe lefty-righty hitting splits than the young Heisey, Ludwick adds a more consistent and versatile option to the outfield mix while adding very well-regarded veteran leadership to the clubhouse.

Ludwick spent most of his major league career with the Cardinals and had his career year with them in 2008, batting .299 with 37 homeruns and 113 runs batted in. It goes without saying, though, that hitting in front of Albert Pujols probably benefited the outfielder to a certain extent. Still, Ludwick is a career .261 hitter with power who, other than the last few years, was good for an OPS of at least .775. Sluggers who can power in 100+ or even 75+ RBIs a season don't typically go for $2.5 million, though, and his performance in recent seasons is the biggest factor in his diminished value.

Did Ludwick Lose his Pop?

Ludwick is coming off a few disappointing seasons, where he spent most of his time in San Diego's monstrous Petco Park. During that time, the traditionally slugging Ludwick had some potentially concerning trends with his isolated power numbers, which is a hitter's slugging percentage minus his batting average per at bat. The metric measures the extra base hits that a hitter averages per at bat and is a better measure of a batter's pure power than slugging percentage, which factors singles into the equation. Where Ludwick hovered around a respectable .200 ISO during his time with St. Louis, he never exceeded .135 in San Diego or in his cameo appearance for the Pirates during the second half of last year. The major league average, even taking soft-hitting shortstops into account, has hovered around .150 since 2002.

That decline is certainly not a good power trend to be coming off of. Still, it's difficult to isolate Ludwick's decline strictly to his power all of a sudden being sapped. The righty really didn't change his tendencies as a hitter during the last three years, posting consistent line drive, flyball, strike-out and walk rates even as his power numbers seemingly began to suffer.

A culprit worth noting in this decline was Ludwick's batting average on balls in play, which may be more of a symptom than a driver of his poor statistics in this case. Where the general league average is around .300, Ludwick never managed a BABIP above .277 since leaving Saint Louis, which isn't a fall off the cliff, necessarily, but isn't the norm for a 20% line drive hitter. The big contributor to that discrepancy may lie in what Ludwick does with the other 80% of his batted balls, namely his tendency to hit a lot of flyballs.

Petco Park has some of the deepest outfield dimensions in baseball and in addition to spending most of his last two seasons there, Ludwick spent a lot of time playing division games in also-cavernous Los Angeles and San Francisco. For a flyball hitter in a pitcher's park, good contact hits that may be homeruns in other parks most often turn into deep fly outs. In Petco's case, lefties are much more suppressed than righties like Ludwick on homeruns, but both are suppressed more in San Diego than most parks in the majors. If fewer balls are leaving the park and becoming outs instead, it not only will suppress the traditional average and slugging numbers, but it reduces the hitter's production in the true outcome events that are measured in BABIP.

Locations of all homeruns (blue) and fly outs (orange)
hit in Petco last year, overlayed on Great American Ballpark

Great American Ball Park is the antithesis to Petco and may, in fact, be a better fit for Ludwick's tendencies than even other hitter's parks. While Great American isn't necessarily shallow in left-center or center field where Ludwick hits many of his homeruns, it's much shorter down the line at 328 feet and more friendly in the gap at 379 feet. Great American Ball Park has one of the best homerun park factors for righties in baseball at 133, a pretty large jump from Petco's 95.

To partially illustrate some of these differences, take a look at the image to the right. This park map charts the locations of all homeruns (blue) and fly outs (orange) hit in Petco last season, overlayed against the dimensions of Great American Ballpark. While this doesn't tell the whole picture, it's worth noting that if you similarly chart just Ludwick's homeruns and fly outs from last season, two of his fly outs would have been homeruns in Great American's right field.

What to Actually Expect

It would be foolish to expect a heroic renaissance of epic proportions like the season Ludwick had in 2008, especially in the number of plate appearances he will likely get by comparison. It's hard to weigh the specific causes of some of Ludwick's issues in the last few years, so it's tough to lay his reduced numbers strictly at the feet of Petco's large outfield dimensions. That said, the switch of parks alone should make Ludwick a much more valuable contributor in 2012 considering his low price tag.

If he can hit close to his career average while maintaining a .775+ OPS and an .200+ ISO, Ludwick could easily add one or two wins to the Reds efforts in 2012. It will be interesting to see how time is divided between he, Heisey and Stubbs, though. While it's safe to say Bruce is anchored in right other than a day off here and there, Heisey may see some increased playing time in center based on matchups. It wouldn't be out of the question to see all three of Ludwick, Heisey and Stubbs seeing north of 400 plate apperances in 2012, but as always, player production will tell the tale.

Reds Find Their Closer in Madson

The Cincinnati Reds have agreed to add free-agent closer Ryan Madson, answering the closer question raised by Francisco Cordero's departure and providing another shot in the arm to the 2012 roster. After trying to come to an agreement with Cordero over the last few weeks, Reds GM Walt Jocketty gave the closer and his agent a soft deadline to come to a consensus. As of Tuesday, the club was downplaying interest in Madson, but with the closer market relatively dry at this point, the Reds were finally able to come to terms with the righty's agent Scott Boras, ending their pursuit of Cordero.

In 2012, Madson will be due about $6 million by the club, half of what Cordero would have made had the Reds picked up his option for this season. In 2013, there is a mutual option for $11 million, with a $2.5 million buy-out should the Reds decide to go in another direction. It's no small feat to land a one-year deal for a Scott Boras free agent, especially when the player in question was linked to a four-year, $44 million deal with the Phillies earlier this year

The Numbers Don't Lie

In terms of converting saves, Madson was the third most efficient reliever in baseball for the Phillies in 2011, converting 32-34 of his save opportunities as Brad Lidge dealt with injuries for most of the year. He was notably terrific against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .198 batting average and a .506 OPS. Madson maintained a 2.37 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 ratio through his 61 innings, where he induced a ground ball rate just short of 49%. 

Other than a mid-90's fastball, Madson has a deadly change-up in his arsenal as a true put away pitch. He threw the pitch more than half of the time on two-strike counts last year with lethal results. The pitch had the second largest amount of break to the right of change-ups in baseball, was out of the strike zone nearly 75% of the time, but was still swung at more than 65% of the time. Most importantly, the pitch was only put into play about 25% of the time. This is a significant advantage for a righty closer since the change-up is arguably the most effective neutralizing pitch against left-handed hitters, as reflected in Madson's other peripherals.

Bringing the Offseason into Perspective

While debate will almost certainly continue around the number of prospects the Reds parted ways with in the Latos and Marshall trades, it's important to consider their impact on the larger offseason and this deal. If the Reds are particularly committed to winning in the remaining two years of Votto's contract, Madson's addition adds to the number of options the team has to compete with during that time. In addition to having the option of extending Marshall, the Reds now have another bona fide late-inning reliever in Madson under club control to consider going into 2013. The move can also let the team comfortably try Aroldis Chapman as a starter in the minor leagues to finally assess his value in that role in the future.

There's a number of factors that will contribute to the team's decisions beyond the 2012 season, from attendance bumps to (hopefully) playoff revenue. But in the time the team is guaranteed to have with Votto, they have maximized their number of quality options to go forward with, or not. But for this season, the acquisition has arguably given the Reds one of the better bullpens in the National League. Where Cordero was a solid but perhaps declining contributor, the money saved by not extending him brought a combined 4.5 WAR in Madson and Marshall, and gave the team flexibility to consider their options as they go "all in."

Take a look at the numbers of some major relief contributors from 2011 (FanGraphs):

	W	L	SV	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	WAR
Sean Marshall	6	6	5	78	75.2	9.4	2.02	0.12	2.26	2.8
Ryan Madson	4	2	32	62	60.2	9.2	2.37	0.3	2.37	1.7
Bill Bray	5	3	0	79	48.1	8.19	3.17	0.56	2.98	0.7
Nick Masset	3	6	1	75	70.1	7.93	3.97	0.64	3.71	0.6
Logan Ondrusek	5	5	0	66	61.1	6.02	4.11	0.88	3.23	-0.2

Congratulations Barry Larkin!

2012 MLB Hall of Fame Inductee

What's Left on the Farm?

The arrival of Mat Latos and Sean Marshall has improved the outlook and expectations for the 2012 Reds season, but came at the expense of some highly coveted prospects. In the trades that brought Latos and Marshall over, the Reds parted with Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Brad Boxberger, Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. Alonso and Grandal were both first round picks and ranked fourth and sixth respectively in Baseball America's 2011 top prospect list. Prior to being packaged in the Marshall trade, Torreyes projected to be on the team's 2012 list. Excluding players like Devin Mesoroco, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier who saw some fairly significant playing time in 2011, here's a look at five of the Reds' top prospects following the Latos and Marshall deals.


Billy Hamilton - Shortstop

Billy Hamilton had an astounding 103 stolen
bases for the Dayton Dragons last year.

Other than the excluded Mesoroco, Hamilton is in line to be the Reds next top prospect and figures to be in the middle infield mix as the Reds move forward in the next few years. His success will largely hinge on Hamilton's ability to improve his contact rate, allowing him to truly take advantage of his elite speed. After 610 plate appearances in 2011, Hamilton had stolen a whopping 103 bases and ended up with a steal virtually every other time he reached base. He has a strong batting average on balls in play, but had a fairly unspectacular .340 on-base percentage last year, due largely to his 133 stirkeouts - all in single A Dayton, where pitching talent hasn't yet developed to the major-league level. If Hamilton can improve his strikeout and walk numbers, he has the raw tools to make him an intriguing future leadoff option with base-running speed to burn. For now, expect him to start his 2012 season in high A to work on those peripherals.


Daniel Corcino - Pitcher (R)
Right-handed pitching prospect Daniel Corcino is arguably the top arm in the current Reds system, though he may still be several years away from contributing at the major-league level. Corcino pitched in single A during 2011, securing an 11-7 record with a 3.42 ERA. In just under 140 innings, Corcino issued a mere 34 walks, while fanning 156 batters in that time. He has a strong mid-90's fastball and works in a slider and changeup to keep opposing hitters off-balance. That said, his smaller frame (5' 11" and 165 pounds) may make his inning-eating durability a question mark in the future based on his body of work. 2011 was the first year that Corcino eclipsed the 100 inning mark and he will likely be stretched out further in high A to start the 2012 season.


Robert Stephenson - Pitcher (R)
The 18-year-old Robert Stephenson was the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft after throwing back-to-back no-hitters for his high school team. Stephenson has a mid-to-high-90's fastball that Reds scouts clocked at as high as 98 mph. With a strong curveball, Stephenson will likely work to develop his third offering in low A ball this season to improve his total command of the strike zone. With a projectable frame, his peripheral qualities and arsenal could help Stephenson advance through the minors quickly in the years to come.


DiDi Gregorius - Shortstop
A European prospect from Amsterdam, Gregorius finished 2011 with the AA Carolina Mudcats after 46 games with A+ Bakersfield, where he hit .303 with a .457 slugging percentage in 203 plate appearances. In a combined 336 at-bats, he only struck out a respectable 50 times. Improving his walk rate should improve his .324 OBP and will be an area of focus for the shortstop with the Mudcats this season. His production dropped slightly after advancing to Carolina last year, where he hit .270 in 160 plate appearances. Despite the small sample offensive splits, his glove work remained a plus asset for the young infielder at both levels of competition. Based on his production and ability to improve his overall strike zone management, he could be a candidate for AAA promotion sooner than later.


Neftali Soto - First Base

Neftali Soto lead all Reds minor-leaguers
with 31 homeruns in 2011.

With the departure of Alonso, Soto would seem to be the in-house heir apparent for Joey Votto at first base should he leave the team after his current contract expires. Originally drafted in 2007, Neftali was a slow riser through the Reds minor league system, but displayed marked improvements to his numbers over the last two seasons. Soto has greatly improved his power potential, and had 31 homeruns in two levels of competition last year, where he powered in 80 runs in 396 at-bats. He has room to improve his walk and strikeout numbers, drawing 23 and 98 respectively in 432 plate appearances last season. Soto is not a particularly outstanding defender, but has seemingly found a home at first which could contribute to a sense of consistency for improvement. While there are holes to improve in his lunging swing, Soto will begin the year in AAA and may be in the mix to contribute to the major league club should team injury or his own production prompt a move.