Utilizing the Utility Guys

It's less than three short weeks until the Reds begin their pursuit of another winning season. While the roster has begun to optimistically take shape for 2012, several minor questions are still being worked out in Arizona, including which utility players will round out the Opening Day 25-man roster. While you could perhaps argue that its a five-man battle for two roster spots between Willie Harris, Wilson Valdez, Paul Janish, Juan Francisco and Todd Frazier, its more realistically a battle of two players for one spot, if anything.

The Outfielders

Chris Heisey stands to play a
large role in the left field platoon

It's generally good practice in the National League to carry a second catcher, second third baseman and reserve utility infielder into the season with you. Without compromising pitching depth, it's tough to have room for more than a fourth outfielder.

Bringing in Willie Harris was a great depth move by Reds GM Walt Jocketty this offseason,  but his toolset (and contract terms by comparison) probably won't be enough to upend also acquired Ryan Ludwick for the fourth outfield spot. Harris will likely see some time with the Major League club at some point or another in the case of injury, but with a minor league deal he will mostly provide organizational security from AAA Louisville and be called on when needed in the outfield.

Harris is a career .240 hitter and doesn't bring much power to the table. He hit .246 with a .668 OPS for the Mets last year in 283 plate appearances. With good plate discipline, he draws a lot of walks which have helped keep his on-base percentage above .340 for the last five years. Even though he will mostly factor into the outfield depth situation, it's worth noting that he is also a capable infielder in a pinch. While Harris was similarly... we'll say "serviceable" to Ludwick on a per at-bat basis last season, he's coming off several seasons in a fairly limited role and a comparable minor league deal with the Mets in 2011.

As I discussed earlier this year upon Ludwick's arrival, he may stand to greatly improve his numbers spending most of his time in Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati's 133 ballpark homerun factor for righties is almost tailor made for Ludwick's tendencies. In the 30 games he's played there in his career, Ludwick has hit nine homeruns, powered 21 runs in, managed a .276 batting average and posted a .921 on-base-plus-slugging. In a lot of ways, though, it's unfair to call the Reds' fourth outfielder a utility contributor, especially when he's a veteran on a Dusty Baker team. When all is said and done, Ryan Ludwick may tip the playing time balance away from Chris Heisey in left field by season's end, for better or worse, based mostly on his veteran status. With both left fielders struggling in Goodyear so far - Heisey has hit .130 with 11 strikeouts while Ludwick has hit .190 with 7 K's - it's hard to make that prediction with total conviction this early on.

“Obviously if one of us is hot, we’ll stick with that guy for a while.” Heisey said about he and Ludwick in left, adding that, "Right now, I don’t think one of us is going to get buried on the bench unless one of us is really struggling.”

The Infielders

Paul Janish likely played his way out of backup shortstop consideration last year, in spite his defensive prowess. The arrival of Wilson Valdez, who can play almost any infield or outfield position and arrives without options should figure to keep Janish off the 25-man as well.

All told, this means it's probably more of a Spring Training battle between Francisco and Frazier for the right to back up superveteran Scott Rolen at third with also-veteran Miguel Cairo. With Rolen's history of injury problems this is a fairly significant role for the  Reds' hopes to contend in 2012 and might represent 200-250 at-bats for the club.

Todd Frazier may give Juan
Francisco a run for his money
backing up Scott Rolen

Francisco arrived to camp later than some of the other "on the bubble" utility players, and reportedly drew some concern from Reds management. While Francisco has performed well enough since then, Frazier earned some brownie points with the club by reporting early and has motored along with a .280 average over 25 plate appearances while leading the club in homeruns (3) and RBI (8). Spring training numbers don't necessarily matter all that much (see: since traded Dave Sappelt, 2012), but there is some potential debate between the two back-up third basemen beyond their performances in half a season in the Cactus League.

Frazier is a more versatile reserve player and can cover all the spots around the horn in the infield, as well as play some corner outfield. Francisco may be able to play beyond first and third, but hasn't gotten any time away from the hot corner this Spring or in most of his Major League appearances to date. In 121 plate appearances last season, Frazier hit .232 but struggled from a below-average .253 batting average on balls put in play. He hit 6 homeruns and had 15 RBIs. Francisco hit .258 in 97 plate appearances for 3 homeruns and 15 RBIs himself. He posted a higher-than-average .318 batting average on balls in play, but given his power tendencies, the free-swinging Francisco will likely always be above league average in this category. Frazier's tools are a little more diversified, so the question is whether his production and versatility combined would trump Francisco's raw power alone, especially with a BABIP more in line with league average and Frazier's body of work in the minors.

The likely trump card in this conversation, barring a trade, is that Juan Francisco is out of minor league options as well. With more power than arguably anyone in the organization, it's unlikely the Reds would be able to retain the young prospect if he was designated for assignment and made it to waivers. While Frazier's stock would probably keep him from clearing waivers in a similar circumstance, the club can still move him freely between the 25-man and 40-man active rosters for now. He's also a right-handed hitter where Francisco hits left-handed. While this may actually have been a boon for Frazier's chances to make the club out of camp a few years ago when the Reds were lefty-heavy, the 2012 club is short on left-handed bats off the bench. For that reason, Todd will probably start the year in Louisville again, patiently waiting for his number to be called.

2012 Starting Pitching Preview

Spring Has Sprung

The Cincinnati Reds pitchers and catchers have reported to Arizona and the extended baseball season is officially upon us. On the heels of the team's first division title in over a decade in 2010, the Reds contended with injuries and underproduction in 2011, limping to a sub-.500 record and a third place finish in the division. Following an aggressive offseason and some significant power shifts in the rest of the NL Central, the start of Spring Training this year is surrounded by renewed optimism and a few new faces.

Last season, the Reds went to Goodyear feeling particularly good about their starting pitching depth. After injuries to Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, a case of mononucleosis for Bronson Arroyo, and a case of continued unmet potential for the since traded Edinson Volquez, that song quickly became the lullaby that largely put the team's 2011 hopes to bed early. After the busy offseason, the club hopes to have provided depth to not only their rotation, but the larger 25 man roster. It's still early to predict the Opening Day lineup with total certainty in February, but with pitchers and catchers reporting, it seemed like an opportune moment to take preliminary look at your new look Reds pitching staff.

The Rotation

After missing the start of the season with injury, Johnny Cueto was a terrific bright spot for the Reds in his 24 starts last year. Cueto added an extra hitch to a Luis Tiant-like delivery and traded in his marginally higher career strikeout ratio for more groundball inducing strikes, improving his efficiency with the Reds elite defense behind him. Cueto finished the season with a 2.31 ERA and 3.45 FIP, but the .249 batting average on balls hit in play against him will be extremely difficult to replicate, in spite of the Reds defense. Still, in a staff that clearly needed a potential ace to emerge, Cueto took a huge step forward in 2011. A position on top of the rotation will put increased pressure on Johnny's durability and he will need to make more than 24 starts to really set the team over the top in key pitching matchups throughout the season.

Beyond Cueto, the Reds needed another bona fide option at the top of their pitching rotation to take the next step as a club. Given the club's payroll limitation, the solution needed to be team controlled, affordable and acquirable through a trade. Enter Mat Latos. In the team's largest deal of the offseason, the Reds parted with several highly touted prospects to land the 24-year old righty from San Diego. A 2.92 ERA pitching, 14 game winning strikeout machine in 2010, Latos had a shaky start to 2011 before drastically improving throughout the year and finishing with a 1.96 ERA through five starts in September. While he is making the transition from pitcher-friendly San Diego to bandbox-resembling Great American Ballpark, Latos is well-fit to make the transition and gives the Reds top of the rotation pitching depth that they simply haven't had in several years.

The order of the rest of the rotation is arguably a little more difficult to predict. Bronson Arroyo apparently contended with the effects of mono for most of the 2011 season and posted his worst ERA since 2001 at 5.07. He still managed to give the Reds around 200 innings, but surrendered a soul-crushing 46 homeruns - more than two per nine innings pitched. Reds fans should take solace in the fact that the 2011 Bad Bronson epidemic was arguably the worst in his career and a performance he probably won't repeat. If the lingering effects of mono kept him from performing up to his career numbers last season, 2012 should (hopefully) be a little easier on the usually reliable veteran. The size of his contract pretty much guarantees that he will likely remain a starter somewhere on the team, but his production and recovery will likely dictate where and to what extent.

Mike Leake had a bumpy sophomore start out of the gate last year with a 5.06 ERA through May and a shoplifting charge  in April. He also spent some time in AAA Louisville for the first time in his career, from May 14th to May 28th. After shaking off the start, he became one of the most productive starters for the team, posting a 3.45 ERA for the remainder of the season. Leake won 12 games and regularly worked five different pitches into his delivery, averaging a respectable 6.33 strikeouts per nine innings and a Great-American-favorable groundball rate near 50%. Leake finished the season with a 2.74 ERA in three September starts and will play a considerable role in the middle of the 2012 rotation.

Homer Bailey enters his sixth season now, and Reds fans everywhere are still waiting for him to have "the year" that he puts it all together. In 22 starts in 2011, Homer won nine games and was one of the only Reds pitchers to have an ERA (4.43) worse than his FIP (4.06). He had two different DL stints with shoulder tendinitis and his durability remains the biggest obstacle to a truly productive full season, much as it has for his whole career. With the departure of Travis Wood, Homer will almost certainly play into the back of the rotation plan. With terrific stuff and moments of brilliance, it's tough to say what the Reds really have in the once "can't miss prospect" given some of Bailey's issues with consistency. With other potential options waiting in the wings and the likely reality that Bailey will spend at least some time on the DL, it will be interesting to see if his role changes throughout the course of the season.

Wildcards

The Reds still have some depth in the minors that will likely be thrown into the mix at some point this season. The most intriguing option is Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. Chapman had an up and down, mostly good campaign in 2011. At one point, he gave up over eight runs and retired just one opposing batter through three games out of the bullpen. After being placed on the DL for issues with his shoulder, he returned to strike out 56 batters in 37 innings with a 2.43 ERA. The Reds have begun to transition Chapman from the bullpen back into the rotation, and after missing Winter Ball with injury, he will likely get his first starts in Spring Training this year. While he will probably begin the season in AAA, he may get the call at one point or another based on his own production or injuries to one of the starters.

Other suitors for some major league exposure are veteran Jeff Francis and super-veteran Brett Tomko who both enter on minor league deals. Francis was a 17 game winner for Colorado in 2007 before injuries derailed his production in 2008 and 2009. Last season, he posted a 4.82 ERA and 6-16 record for the Royals over 31 starts. Tomko debuted with the Reds in 1997 and was one of the players dealt to bring Ken Griffey Jr. to Cincinnati in 2000. With a career 5.99 ERA, his addition was a depth signing and at least provides the Reds with a seasoned professional who could likely be relied on for an occasional emergency start, as needed.

In general, the Reds once again have starting pitching depth on paper to start Spring Training. It's always difficult to say exactly who will play where in a Dusty Baker rotation. Beyond preference in splitting up lefties and righties, Dusty has an acknowledged belief in separating pitchers who have similar deliveries or tendencies. This is worth noting, particularly with two finesse pitchers like Arroyo and Leake both seemingly best fit for a spot in the middle of the order. Hopefully this depth on paper won't be put to the test to quite the same extent as 2011.

Rounding Out the Outfield

The Reds have signed veteran outfielder Ryan Ludwick to their 2012 efforts with a $2.5 million contract and a nominal mutual option for 2013. The contract has up to $500,000 in performance incentives and affordably adds much-needed depth to the Reds outfield. Ludwick can play either corner outfield spot, giving the Reds the flexibility to slide Chris Heisey to center to spell Drew Stubbs when needed without compromising depth behind Jay Bruce. With less severe lefty-righty hitting splits than the young Heisey, Ludwick adds a more consistent and versatile option to the outfield mix while adding very well-regarded veteran leadership to the clubhouse.

Ludwick spent most of his major league career with the Cardinals and had his career year with them in 2008, batting .299 with 37 homeruns and 113 runs batted in. It goes without saying, though, that hitting in front of Albert Pujols probably benefited the outfielder to a certain extent. Still, Ludwick is a career .261 hitter with power who, other than the last few years, was good for an OPS of at least .775. Sluggers who can power in 100+ or even 75+ RBIs a season don't typically go for $2.5 million, though, and his performance in recent seasons is the biggest factor in his diminished value.

Did Ludwick Lose his Pop?

Ludwick is coming off a few disappointing seasons, where he spent most of his time in San Diego's monstrous Petco Park. During that time, the traditionally slugging Ludwick had some potentially concerning trends with his isolated power numbers, which is a hitter's slugging percentage minus his batting average per at bat. The metric measures the extra base hits that a hitter averages per at bat and is a better measure of a batter's pure power than slugging percentage, which factors singles into the equation. Where Ludwick hovered around a respectable .200 ISO during his time with St. Louis, he never exceeded .135 in San Diego or in his cameo appearance for the Pirates during the second half of last year. The major league average, even taking soft-hitting shortstops into account, has hovered around .150 since 2002.

That decline is certainly not a good power trend to be coming off of. Still, it's difficult to isolate Ludwick's decline strictly to his power all of a sudden being sapped. The righty really didn't change his tendencies as a hitter during the last three years, posting consistent line drive, flyball, strike-out and walk rates even as his power numbers seemingly began to suffer.

A culprit worth noting in this decline was Ludwick's batting average on balls in play, which may be more of a symptom than a driver of his poor statistics in this case. Where the general league average is around .300, Ludwick never managed a BABIP above .277 since leaving Saint Louis, which isn't a fall off the cliff, necessarily, but isn't the norm for a 20% line drive hitter. The big contributor to that discrepancy may lie in what Ludwick does with the other 80% of his batted balls, namely his tendency to hit a lot of flyballs.

Petco Park has some of the deepest outfield dimensions in baseball and in addition to spending most of his last two seasons there, Ludwick spent a lot of time playing division games in also-cavernous Los Angeles and San Francisco. For a flyball hitter in a pitcher's park, good contact hits that may be homeruns in other parks most often turn into deep fly outs. In Petco's case, lefties are much more suppressed than righties like Ludwick on homeruns, but both are suppressed more in San Diego than most parks in the majors. If fewer balls are leaving the park and becoming outs instead, it not only will suppress the traditional average and slugging numbers, but it reduces the hitter's production in the true outcome events that are measured in BABIP.

Locations of all homeruns (blue) and fly outs (orange)
hit in Petco last year, overlayed on Great American Ballpark

Great American Ball Park is the antithesis to Petco and may, in fact, be a better fit for Ludwick's tendencies than even other hitter's parks. While Great American isn't necessarily shallow in left-center or center field where Ludwick hits many of his homeruns, it's much shorter down the line at 328 feet and more friendly in the gap at 379 feet. Great American Ball Park has one of the best homerun park factors for righties in baseball at 133, a pretty large jump from Petco's 95.

To partially illustrate some of these differences, take a look at the image to the right. This park map charts the locations of all homeruns (blue) and fly outs (orange) hit in Petco last season, overlayed against the dimensions of Great American Ballpark. While this doesn't tell the whole picture, it's worth noting that if you similarly chart just Ludwick's homeruns and fly outs from last season, two of his fly outs would have been homeruns in Great American's right field.

What to Actually Expect

It would be foolish to expect a heroic renaissance of epic proportions like the season Ludwick had in 2008, especially in the number of plate appearances he will likely get by comparison. It's hard to weigh the specific causes of some of Ludwick's issues in the last few years, so it's tough to lay his reduced numbers strictly at the feet of Petco's large outfield dimensions. That said, the switch of parks alone should make Ludwick a much more valuable contributor in 2012 considering his low price tag.

If he can hit close to his career average while maintaining a .775+ OPS and an .200+ ISO, Ludwick could easily add one or two wins to the Reds efforts in 2012. It will be interesting to see how time is divided between he, Heisey and Stubbs, though. While it's safe to say Bruce is anchored in right other than a day off here and there, Heisey may see some increased playing time in center based on matchups. It wouldn't be out of the question to see all three of Ludwick, Heisey and Stubbs seeing north of 400 plate apperances in 2012, but as always, player production will tell the tale.

Reds Find Their Closer in Madson

The Cincinnati Reds have agreed to add free-agent closer Ryan Madson, answering the closer question raised by Francisco Cordero's departure and providing another shot in the arm to the 2012 roster. After trying to come to an agreement with Cordero over the last few weeks, Reds GM Walt Jocketty gave the closer and his agent a soft deadline to come to a consensus. As of Tuesday, the club was downplaying interest in Madson, but with the closer market relatively dry at this point, the Reds were finally able to come to terms with the righty's agent Scott Boras, ending their pursuit of Cordero.

In 2012, Madson will be due about $6 million by the club, half of what Cordero would have made had the Reds picked up his option for this season. In 2013, there is a mutual option for $11 million, with a $2.5 million buy-out should the Reds decide to go in another direction. It's no small feat to land a one-year deal for a Scott Boras free agent, especially when the player in question was linked to a four-year, $44 million deal with the Phillies earlier this year

The Numbers Don't Lie

In terms of converting saves, Madson was the third most efficient reliever in baseball for the Phillies in 2011, converting 32-34 of his save opportunities as Brad Lidge dealt with injuries for most of the year. He was notably terrific against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .198 batting average and a .506 OPS. Madson maintained a 2.37 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 ratio through his 61 innings, where he induced a ground ball rate just short of 49%. 

Other than a mid-90's fastball, Madson has a deadly change-up in his arsenal as a true put away pitch. He threw the pitch more than half of the time on two-strike counts last year with lethal results. The pitch had the second largest amount of break to the right of change-ups in baseball, was out of the strike zone nearly 75% of the time, but was still swung at more than 65% of the time. Most importantly, the pitch was only put into play about 25% of the time. This is a significant advantage for a righty closer since the change-up is arguably the most effective neutralizing pitch against left-handed hitters, as reflected in Madson's other peripherals.

Bringing the Offseason into Perspective

While debate will almost certainly continue around the number of prospects the Reds parted ways with in the Latos and Marshall trades, it's important to consider their impact on the larger offseason and this deal. If the Reds are particularly committed to winning in the remaining two years of Votto's contract, Madson's addition adds to the number of options the team has to compete with during that time. In addition to having the option of extending Marshall, the Reds now have another bona fide late-inning reliever in Madson under club control to consider going into 2013. The move can also let the team comfortably try Aroldis Chapman as a starter in the minor leagues to finally assess his value in that role in the future.

There's a number of factors that will contribute to the team's decisions beyond the 2012 season, from attendance bumps to (hopefully) playoff revenue. But in the time the team is guaranteed to have with Votto, they have maximized their number of quality options to go forward with, or not. But for this season, the acquisition has arguably given the Reds one of the better bullpens in the National League. Where Cordero was a solid but perhaps declining contributor, the money saved by not extending him brought a combined 4.5 WAR in Madson and Marshall, and gave the team flexibility to consider their options as they go "all in."

Take a look at the numbers of some major relief contributors from 2011 (FanGraphs):

	W	L	SV	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	WAR
Sean Marshall	6	6	5	78	75.2	9.4	2.02	0.12	2.26	2.8
Ryan Madson	4	2	32	62	60.2	9.2	2.37	0.3	2.37	1.7
Bill Bray	5	3	0	79	48.1	8.19	3.17	0.56	2.98	0.7
Nick Masset	3	6	1	75	70.1	7.93	3.97	0.64	3.71	0.6
Logan Ondrusek	5	5	0	66	61.1	6.02	4.11	0.88	3.23	-0.2

Congratulations Barry Larkin!

2012 MLB Hall of Fame Inductee

What's Left on the Farm?

The arrival of Mat Latos and Sean Marshall has improved the outlook and expectations for the 2012 Reds season, but came at the expense of some highly coveted prospects. In the trades that brought Latos and Marshall over, the Reds parted with Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Brad Boxberger, Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. Alonso and Grandal were both first round picks and ranked fourth and sixth respectively in Baseball America's 2011 top prospect list. Prior to being packaged in the Marshall trade, Torreyes projected to be on the team's 2012 list. Excluding players like Devin Mesoroco, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier who saw some fairly significant playing time in 2011, here's a look at five of the Reds' top prospects following the Latos and Marshall deals.


Billy Hamilton - Shortstop

Billy Hamilton had an astounding 103 stolen
bases for the Dayton Dragons last year.

Other than the excluded Mesoroco, Hamilton is in line to be the Reds next top prospect and figures to be in the middle infield mix as the Reds move forward in the next few years. His success will largely hinge on Hamilton's ability to improve his contact rate, allowing him to truly take advantage of his elite speed. After 610 plate appearances in 2011, Hamilton had stolen a whopping 103 bases and ended up with a steal virtually every other time he reached base. He has a strong batting average on balls in play, but had a fairly unspectacular .340 on-base percentage last year, due largely to his 133 stirkeouts - all in single A Dayton, where pitching talent hasn't yet developed to the major-league level. If Hamilton can improve his strikeout and walk numbers, he has the raw tools to make him an intriguing future leadoff option with base-running speed to burn. For now, expect him to start his 2012 season in high A to work on those peripherals.


Daniel Corcino - Pitcher (R)
Right-handed pitching prospect Daniel Corcino is arguably the top arm in the current Reds system, though he may still be several years away from contributing at the major-league level. Corcino pitched in single A during 2011, securing an 11-7 record with a 3.42 ERA. In just under 140 innings, Corcino issued a mere 34 walks, while fanning 156 batters in that time. He has a strong mid-90's fastball and works in a slider and changeup to keep opposing hitters off-balance. That said, his smaller frame (5' 11" and 165 pounds) may make his inning-eating durability a question mark in the future based on his body of work. 2011 was the first year that Corcino eclipsed the 100 inning mark and he will likely be stretched out further in high A to start the 2012 season.


Robert Stephenson - Pitcher (R)
The 18-year-old Robert Stephenson was the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft after throwing back-to-back no-hitters for his high school team. Stephenson has a mid-to-high-90's fastball that Reds scouts clocked at as high as 98 mph. With a strong curveball, Stephenson will likely work to develop his third offering in low A ball this season to improve his total command of the strike zone. With a projectable frame, his peripheral qualities and arsenal could help Stephenson advance through the minors quickly in the years to come.


DiDi Gregorius - Shortstop
A European prospect from Amsterdam, Gregorius finished 2011 with the AA Carolina Mudcats after 46 games with A+ Bakersfield, where he hit .303 with a .457 slugging percentage in 203 plate appearances. In a combined 336 at-bats, he only struck out a respectable 50 times. Improving his walk rate should improve his .324 OBP and will be an area of focus for the shortstop with the Mudcats this season. His production dropped slightly after advancing to Carolina last year, where he hit .270 in 160 plate appearances. Despite the small sample offensive splits, his glove work remained a plus asset for the young infielder at both levels of competition. Based on his production and ability to improve his overall strike zone management, he could be a candidate for AAA promotion sooner than later.


Neftali Soto - First Base

Neftali Soto lead all Reds minor-leaguers
with 31 homeruns in 2011.

With the departure of Alonso, Soto would seem to be the in-house heir apparent for Joey Votto at first base should he leave the team after his current contract expires. Originally drafted in 2007, Neftali was a slow riser through the Reds minor league system, but displayed marked improvements to his numbers over the last two seasons. Soto has greatly improved his power potential, and had 31 homeruns in two levels of competition last year, where he powered in 80 runs in 396 at-bats. He has room to improve his walk and strikeout numbers, drawing 23 and 98 respectively in 432 plate appearances last season. Soto is not a particularly outstanding defender, but has seemingly found a home at first which could contribute to a sense of consistency for improvement. While there are holes to improve in his lunging swing, Soto will begin the year in AAA and may be in the mix to contribute to the major league club should team injury or his own production prompt a move. 

Out Goes Wood, In Comes Marshall

Sean Marshall has lead all major-league
relievers in WAR with 5.0 since 2010

Well, I apparently picked a good week to start this little love affair of a blog. On the heels of this weekend's acquisition of Mat Latos, the Cincinnati Reds have agreed to a trade with the Chicago Cubs that will send Travis Wood and prospects Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes to Wrigley in exchange for lefty reliever Sean Marshall.

Marshall has, in terms of wins above replacement, been the single most valuable reliever in baseball over the last two years, averaging 2.5 WAR each season - a pretty staggering statistic for someone used primarily as a setup man. The 29-year-old, once-starter has spent his entire career with the Cubs to this point. After fully converting to a reliever in 2010, he broke out as one of the best relief talents in the National League. Over 150 innings, he has posted a 2.45 ERA. In that time, he has given up 22 doubles, one triple and just four homeruns. In 75 innings last year, he gave up just one homerun and 19 earned runs while facing 307 opposing batters and striking 79 of them out.

Travis Wood came on the scene in 2010 and had an impressive rookie campaign for the Reds, going 5-4 in 17 starts with a 3.51 ERA. Interestingly, he made his debut against the very club he is now about to play for, holding the Cubs to two hits and two runs. In just his third big-league start, Wood came within three outs of throwing the second perfect game in Reds history, but instead ended up with a no-decision in an eventual 1-0 loss to the Phillies. His sophomore season wasn't quite as rosy, with Wood going 6-6 in 18 starts with a 4.84 ERA. He spent time in AAA Louisville, pitching ten games and going 2-3 with a 5.33 ERA. Still, the young southpaw has displayed moments of brilliance in his short career and stands to be at worst a solid back of the rotation solution for the Cubs going forward.

In these deals, however, there is always a rub in projecting value. This time around, it all has to do with contract length. Marshall is going into his contract year and stands to be a free agent in 2013. With the Reds' payroll constraints and the money Marshall will be able to command as a premium reliever, it may be difficult to extend him beyond this season. Wood, on the other hand, is under team control through 2016. With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, Cincinnati won't even get a compensation pick for Marshall should he choose to walk after his contract is up unless the trade makes an outrageous arbitration offer. If the Latos trade polarized the Reds fan base, this one has truly left Cincinnati fans as a house divided because of these disparities.

Facing Facts

There's no question that this is a shorter-term move for the Reds, further signifying the "all in" mentality I mentioned in the earlier post about Mat Latos' arrival. It's entirely debatable whether it was the right move and, as is always the case in baseball, 162 games will sort out right from wrong. That said, for all Wood's potential, he wouldn't have the same opportunity to succeed with Cincinnati that he will elsewhere. While the same was true about Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal by virtue of being blocked at their positions, Travis may not have been a good fit for reasons beyond that.

Great American Ballpark is a hitter's park that by its nature is particularly unforgiving to flyball pitchers like Travis Wood. In 106 innings last season, Wood had a low groundball rate of 32.1% and while he put away a respectable 6.5 batters with strikeouts per nine innings, his sub .65 flyout to groundball ratio doesn't project well for the small confines of Great American Ballpark. His home and away splits support this reality, with Wood posting a 5.86 ERA at home last year, almost a full two points above his 3.90 ERA on the road in a similar sample of innings pitched. While he gave up a similar number of hits at home (60) and away (58) in 2011, he gave up four times as many homeruns in Great American as he did on the road, in part resulting in 33 earned runs versus 24 in other ballparks. With Latos' arrival, he was simply the sixth man in a five-man ' rotation and the team moved him for Marshall who should contribute to a larger extent in 2012.

The addition of a reliever of Marshall's caliber and the ongoing vacancy for the Reds closer role begs the question of whether the club would consider him for that spot or not. While it is certainly a possibility based on his FIP and while bullpen roles are often subject to change over the course of a year (see Saint Louis Cardinals, 2011 World Champions), I think Marshall will primarily serve as a setup man for the Reds. While you have to take sample sizes with a grain of salt, here are the numbers of opposing batters against him last year, with plate appearances in parentheses:

• Seventh inning:  .198/.244/.247 (59 PA)
• Eighth inning:  .220/.259/.265 (140 PA)
• Ninth inning:  .340/.375/.396 (87 PA)

I won't get into baseball's eternal debate about whether any good reliever can perform well closing games and pitching in the ninth inning. For all intents and purposes, though, some pitchers are just plain better suited for certain roles. And in a setup role for the last two years, Sean Marshall has empirically been one of the best relievers in baseball.

What Still Might Be Cooking

Since you could almost argue for or against a one-for-one trade for Wood and Marshall based on Chicago's desire to start rebuilding, the inclusion of minor leaguers Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes might signify that the Reds hope to extend Marshall beyond 2012, if possible. He is due $3.1 million in 2012 which is expensive in terms of replacement relief talent, but still more than reasonable for his abilities. The team may have wanted to secure team control for a potential extension during the season before the talented Marshall would hit free agency, where bidding might be competitive.

Dave Sappelt hit .564 in Spring
Training for the Reds last season

Sappelt had a monster line at Spring Training last season, hitting .564 in 38 at-bats with three homeruns and 12 RBI. He spent most of the season in Louisville playing center field and hitting .313 with seven homeruns and a .358 average against lefties. He was called up to the Reds in early August after Chris Heisey injured his oblique and appeared in just under 40 games, going .243 with only 5 RBI.

With Heisey in line to play a part in the left field equation this season, Sappelt was a potential platoon option to spell Heisey's issues with hitting left-handed pitchers. Jocketty has indicated that addressing that platoon issue through free agency is still a potential objective this offseason, along with potentially addressing the bullpen situation further.

The speedy Torreyes was a huge contributor in high-A Dayton last season, hitting .356 with a .457 slugging percentage in a relatively small sample. He converted his 99 hits in for 41 runs batted in and showed tremendous plate discipline for a 19-year-old with a 6.2% strikeout ratio. While he may maintain above average batting averages on balls in play from his speed, his limited frame and tendency to hit singles may not have fit the mold for the Reds plans going forward. His inclusion bolsters the Cubs depth at that position, but shouldn't be a huge detriment for the Reds - especially if they extend Brandon Phillips and hold onto coveted prospect Billy Hamilton, who duplicates many of Torreyes' tools.

As it stands, Jocketty has effectively added one of the better young pitchers in the National League (Latos) and arguably its best left-handed reliever (Marshall) without taking on any net difference in team payroll. The expense was a large part of the nucleus of the Reds' premium prospect base, albeit at positions of depth. If the Reds intend to convert flamethrower Aroldis Chapman to a starter as they've indicated, that means that Sam LeCure is now arguably the club's best option for a spot start until Chapman stretches his innings out, likely in AAA.

Buckle up for 2012.